Treasury yields are 1-2 basis points lower following a quiet overnight session with Europe on holiday.
Initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose 18,000 last week to 241,000, the highest since February. However, the upside surprise was primarily attributable to a 15,500 increase in claims from New York, where some school workers are allowed to file for benefits during spring breaks. Later this morning, April manufacturing surveys from S&P and ISM will be released. Both are expected to show modest contraction in activity and higher prices paid. During a television interview, the Treasury Secretary took a more subtle jab at the Fed, saying the fact that the 2-year Treasury yield is trading below fed funds is a market signal that the Fed should be cutting rates. The 2-year yield is trading nearly 100 bps below the top end of the fed funds target range, with fed funds futures priced for 135 bps of rate cuts over the next 12 months.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 5/1/2025 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | 62.70% | 204.80% | — |
| 5/1/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 223k | 241k | 222k | 223k |
| 5/1/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | 226.00k | 220.25k | — |
| 5/1/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1865k | 1916k | 1841k | 1833k |
| 5/1/2025 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 50.5 | — | 50.7 | — |
| 5/1/2025 | ISM Manufacturing | 47.9 | — | 49 | — |
| 5/1/2025 | ISM Prices Paid | 73 | — | 69.4 | — |
| 5/1/2025 | ISM New Orders | 45 | — | 45.2 | — |
| 5/1/2025 | ISM Employment | 44.6 | — | 44.7 | — |
| 5/1/2025 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 5/1/2025 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 17.16m | — | 17.77m | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 135k | — | 228k | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Change in Private Payrolls | 122k | — | 209k | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | -5k | — | 1k | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg | — | — | 152k | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | -48k | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Unemployment Rate | 4.20% | — | 4.20% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.50% | — | 62.50% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.90% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.90% | — | 3.80% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.2 | — | 34.2 | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Factory Orders | 4.50% | — | 0.60% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Durable Goods Orders | 9.20% | — | 9.20% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.00% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.10% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 5/5/2025 | S&P Global US Services PMI | — | — | 51.4 | — |
| 5/5/2025 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | — | — | 51.2 | — |
| 5/5/2025 | ISM Services Index | 50.1 | — | 50.8 | — |
| 5/5/2025 | ISM Services Prices Paid | — | — | 60.9 | — |
| 5/5/2025 | ISM Services New Orders | — | — | 50.4 | — |
| 5/5/2025 | ISM Services Employment | — | — | 46.2 | — |
| 5/6/2025 | Trade Balance | -$119.5b | — | -$122.7b | — |
| 5/7/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -4.20% | — |
| 5/7/2025 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 4.50% | — | 4.50% | — |
| 5/7/2025 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 4.25% | — | 4.25% | — |
| 5/7/2025 | Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate | — | — | 4.40% | — |
| 5/7/2025 | Consumer Credit | $10.000b | — | -$0.810b | — |
| 5/8/2025 | Nonfarm Productivity | -0.50% | — | 1.50% | — |
| 5/8/2025 | Unit Labor Costs | 5.40% | — | 2.20% | — |
| 5/8/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | — | — | 241k | — |
| 5/8/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 226.00k | — |
| 5/8/2025 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1916k | — |
| 5/8/2025 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | — | — | 2.40% | — |
| 5/8/2025 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | — | — | 0.50% | — |
| 5/8/2025 | NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations | — | — | 3.58% | — |
