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Author Hafizan Hamzah

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Estimated

Treasury yields are 1 to 3 bps higher to start the month following a quiet overnight session with many overseas markets closed.

The US and Iran continue to hold peace talks with Iran delivering a new proposal. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains subject to naval blockades and has pushed oil prices higher.

Rising oil prices caused two Fed officials, Minneapolis president Kashkari and Cleveland president Hammack, to dissent over the FOMC’s recent policy statement. Both presidents attributed oil prices to increasing inflationary pressures, which in their view makes easing inappropriate.

Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
5/1/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI5454.554
5/1/2026ISM Manufacturing53.2     —52.7
5/1/2026ISM Prices Paid80.3     —78.3
5/1/2026ISM New Orders54.5     —53.5
5/1/2026ISM Employment48.8     —48.7
5/1/2026Wards Total Vehicle Sales16.00m     —16.34m
5/4/2026Factory Orders0.40%     —0.00%
5/4/2026Factory Orders Ex Trans     —     —1.20%
5/4/2026Durable Goods Orders0.80%     —0.80%
5/4/2026Durables Ex Transportation     —     —0.90%
5/4/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —3.30%
5/4/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —1.20%
5/5/2026Trade Balance-$59.0b     —-$57.3b
5/5/2026Imports MoM     —     —4.30%
5/5/2026Exports MoM     —     —4.20%
5/5/2026S&P Global US Services PMI     —     —51.3
5/5/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —52
5/5/2026Census Releases February and March New Home Sales   
5/5/2026ISM Services Index53.7     —54
5/5/2026ISM Services Prices Paid73.5     —70.7
5/5/2026New Home Sales668k     —     —
5/5/2026ISM Services New Orders58     —60.6
5/5/2026New Home Sales MoM     —     —-17.60%
5/5/2026ISM Services Employment50     —45.2
5/5/2026JOLTS Job Openings6867k     —6882k
5/5/2026JOLTS Job Openings Rate     —     —4.20%
5/5/2026JOLTS Quits Level     —     —2974k
5/5/2026JOLTS Quits Rate     —     —1.90%
5/5/2026JOLTS Layoffs Level     —     —1721k
5/5/2026JOLTS Layoffs Rate     —     —1.10%
5/05/2026Building Permits     —     —1372k
5/05/2026Building Permits MoM     —     —-10.80%
5/6/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-1.60%
5/6/2026ADP Employment Change79k     —62k
5/6/2026US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement   
5/7/2026Challenger Job Cuts YoY     —     —-78.00%
5/7/2026Challenger Job Cuts Total     —     —60620
5/7/2026Nonfarm Productivity     —     —1.80%
5/7/2026Unit Labor Costs     —     —4.40%
5/7/2026Initial Jobless Claims197k     —189k
5/7/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —207.50k
5/7/2026Continuing Claims     —     —1785k
5/7/2026Census Releases February and March Construction Spending   
5/7/2026Construction Spending MoM     —     —-0.30%
5/7/2026NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations     —     —3.42%
5/7/2026Consumer Credit$12.500b     —$9.484b
5/8/2026Change in Nonfarm Payrolls60k     —178k
5/8/2026Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —     —-7k
5/8/2026Change in Private Payrolls80k     —186k
5/8/2026Change in Manufact. Payrolls5k     —15k
5/8/2026Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —     —68k
5/8/2026Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%     —0.20%
5/8/2026Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.80%     —3.50%
5/8/2026Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.2     —34.2
5/8/2026Unemployment Rate4.30%     —4.30%
5/8/2026Labor Force Participation Rate62.00%     —61.90%
5/8/2026Underemployment Rate     —     —8.00%
5/8/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment49.4     —49.8
5/8/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions52.5     —52.5
5/8/2026U. of Mich. Expectations48.1     —48.1
5/8/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation     —     —4.70%
5/8/2026Wholesale Inventories MoM     —     —1.40%
5/8/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation     —     —3.50%
5/8/2026Wholesale Trade Sales MoM     —     —2.70%

Hafizan Hamzah

Senior Director, Investment Management Group

LinkedIn

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