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Author Jason Haley

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Another failed peace proposal over the weekend is pushing oil prices and Treasury yields higher this morning, and equity futures are modestly lower ahead of the open.

President Trump responded to Iran’s latest response to a US peace proposal with a social media post last night, characterizing it simply as “totally unacceptable.” This week’s economic calendar is headlined by the April CPI report tomorrow, and April retail sales data will be released on Thursday. Recent data releases show a stable, if not firming, labor market, steady consumer spending, and stubborn inflation. If this trend continues, it would further reinforce market expectations for the Fed to remain on hold for the foreseeable future.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
5/11/2026Existing Home Sales4.05m     —3.98m     —
5/11/2026Existing Home Sales MoM2.00%     —-3.60%     —
5/12/2026NFIB Small Business Optimism96.1     —95.8     —
5/12/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —39.250k     —
5/12/2026Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —     —0.20%0.10%
5/12/2026Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —     —0.30%0.20%
5/12/2026CPI MoM0.60%     —0.90%     —
5/12/2026Core CPI MoM0.30%     —0.20%     —
5/12/2026CPI YoY3.70%     —3.30%     —
5/12/2026Core CPI YoY2.70%     —2.60%     —
5/12/2026CPI Index NSA332.63     —330.213     —
5/12/2026Core CPI Index SA335.36     —334.165     —
5/12/2026Federal Budget Balance$220.0b     —-$164.1b     —
5/13/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-4.40%     —
5/13/2026PPI Final Demand MoM0.50%     —0.50%     —
5/13/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%     —0.10%     —
5/13/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.30%     —0.20%     —
5/13/2026PPI Final Demand YoY4.80%     —4.00%     —
5/13/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY4.30%     —3.80%     —
5/13/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY4.10%     —3.60%     —
5/14/2026Import Price Index MoM1.00%     —0.80%     —
5/14/2026Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.50%     —0.10%     —
5/14/2026Import Price Index YoY2.90%     —2.10%     —
5/14/2026Export Price Index MoM1.10%     —1.60%     —
5/14/2026Export Price Index YoY     —     —5.60%     —
5/14/2026Initial Jobless Claims205k     —200k     —
5/14/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —203.25k     —
5/14/2026Continuing Claims1780k     —1766k     —
5/14/2026Retail Sales Advance MoM0.50%     —1.70%     —
5/14/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.70%     —1.90%     —
5/14/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%     —0.60%     —
5/14/2026Retail Sales Control Group0.40%     —0.70%     —
5/14/2026Business Inventories0.90%     —0.40%     —
5/15/2026Empire Manufacturing7.5     —11     —
5/15/2026Industrial Production MoM0.30%     —-0.50%     —
5/15/2026Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.20%     —-0.10%     —
5/15/2026Capacity Utilization75.80%     —75.70%     —
5/18/2026New York Fed Services Business Activity     —     —-14     —
5/18/2026NAHB Housing Market Index34     —34     —
5/18/2026Total Net TIC Flows     —     —$184.5b     —
5/18/2026Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —$58.6b     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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