The April CPI report was hotter than expected for both headline and core readings.
Headline CPI rose 0.6% m/m, as expected, with a 5.4% monthly increase in gasoline prices, the predominant component. Year-over-year, CPI rose more than expected, up 3.8%, the highest reading since May 2023. Excluding food and energy, core CPI exceeded expectations at 0.4% m/m, double the March rate and the highest monthly reading since January 2025. Year-over-year, core CPI rose 20 basis points from the prior month to 2.8% (2.7% expected). The core reading was impacted by a 0.5% increase in owners’ equivalent rent (OER), an unusually large move that appears to be a one-off “catch up” move from the government shutdown. Treasury yields are actually a bit lower in the immediate reaction to the report as investors discount the OER impact.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 5/12/2026 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 96.1 | 95.9 | 95.8 | — |
| 5/12/2026 | ADP Weekly Employment Change | — | 33.000k | 30.250k | — |
| 5/12/2026 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | -0.20% | 0.20% | 0.10% |
| 5/12/2026 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | -0.30% | 0.30% | 0.20% |
| 5/12/2026 | CPI MoM | 0.60% | 0.60% | 0.90% | — |
| 5/12/2026 | Core CPI MoM | 0.30% | 0.40% | 0.20% | — |
| 5/12/2026 | CPI YoY | 3.70% | 3.80% | 3.30% | — |
| 5/12/2026 | Core CPI YoY | 2.70% | 2.80% | 2.60% | — |
| 5/12/2026 | CPI Index NSA | 332.69 | 333.02 | 330.213 | — |
| 5/12/2026 | Core CPI Index SA | 335.36 | 335.42 | 334.165 | — |
| 5/12/2026 | Federal Budget Balance | $220.0b | — | -$164.1b | — |
| 5/13/2026 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -4.40% | — |
| 5/13/2026 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 5/13/2026 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 5/13/2026 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 5/13/2026 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 4.80% | — | 4.00% | — |
| 5/13/2026 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 4.30% | — | 3.80% | — |
| 5/13/2026 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | 4.10% | — | 3.60% | — |
| 5/14/2026 | Import Price Index MoM | 1.00% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 5/14/2026 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 5/14/2026 | Import Price Index YoY | 2.90% | — | 2.10% | — |
| 5/14/2026 | Export Price Index MoM | 1.10% | — | 1.60% | — |
| 5/14/2026 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | 5.60% | — |
| 5/14/2026 | Initial Jobless Claims | 205k | — | 200k | — |
| 5/14/2026 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 203.25k | — |
| 5/14/2026 | Continuing Claims | 1780k | — | 1766k | — |
| 5/14/2026 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.50% | — | 1.70% | — |
| 5/14/2026 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.70% | — | 1.90% | — |
| 5/14/2026 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.30% | — | 0.60% | — |
| 5/14/2026 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.40% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 5/14/2026 | Business Inventories | 0.90% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 5/15/2026 | Empire Manufacturing | 7 | — | 11 | — |
| 5/15/2026 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.30% | — | -0.50% | — |
| 5/15/2026 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.20% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 5/15/2026 | Capacity Utilization | 75.80% | — | 75.70% | — |
| 5/18/2026 | New York Fed Services Business Activity | — | — | -14 | — |
| 5/18/2026 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 34 | — | 34 | — |
| 5/18/2026 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | $184.5b | — |
| 5/18/2026 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $58.6b | — |
| 5/19/2026 | ADP Weekly Employment Change | — | — | 33.000k | — |
| 5/19/2026 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 1.60% | — | 1.50% | — |
| 5/19/2026 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | — | — | 1.80% | — |
