Treasury yields are moving lower and steeper following this morning’s inflation data release.
Both headline and core CPI rose 0.2% m/m in April versus expectations of a 0.3% increase for each. On a year-over-year basis, core CPI held steady at 2.8%, as expected. Prices for cars and apparel were lower than the prior month, as were food and gasoline prices. Grocery costs were down for the first time in nearly a year. Prices are expected to rise in the coming months related to recent tariffs, but it hasn’t materially shown up in the data yet. While reciprocal tariffs have been paused or reduced (China), baseline 10% tariffs and others on specific imports remain in place.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 5/13/2025 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 95 | 95.8 | 97.4 | — |
| 5/13/2025 | CPI MoM | 0.30% | 0.20% | -0.10% | — |
| 5/13/2025 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.30% | 0.20% | 0.10% | — |
| 5/13/2025 | CPI YoY | 2.40% | 2.30% | 2.40% | — |
| 5/13/2025 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.80% | 2.80% | 2.80% | — |
| 5/13/2025 | CPI Index NSA | 320.906 | 320.795 | 319.799 | — |
| 5/13/2025 | CPI Core Index SA | 326.629 | 326.43 | 325.659 | — |
| 5/13/2025 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | 1.40% | 1.40% | — |
| 5/13/2025 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | 1.70% | 0.80% | 1.10% |
| 5/14/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 11.00% | — |
| 5/15/2025 | Empire Manufacturing | -8 | — | -8.1 | — |
| 5/15/2025 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.00% | — | 1.40% | 1.50% |
| 5/15/2025 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.30% | — | 0.80% | 0.90% |
| 5/15/2025 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.50% | 0.60% |
| 5/15/2025 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 5/15/2025 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.20% | — | -0.40% | — |
| 5/15/2025 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.30% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 5/15/2025 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 5/15/2025 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 2.50% | — | 2.70% | — |
| 5/15/2025 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 3.10% | — | 3.30% | — |
| 5/15/2025 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | — | 3.40% | — |
| 5/15/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 228k | — | 228k | — |
| 5/15/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 227.00k | — |
| 5/15/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1890k | — | 1879k | — |
| 5/15/2025 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | -11.1 | — | -26.4 | — |
| 5/15/2025 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.10% | — | -0.30% | — |
| 5/15/2025 | Capacity Utilization | 77.80% | — | 77.80% | — |
| 5/15/2025 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | -0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 5/15/2025 | Business Inventories | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 5/15/2025 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 40 | — | 40 | — |
| 5/16/2025 | Housing Starts | 1364k | — | 1324k | — |
| 5/16/2025 | Building Permits | 1450k | — | 1467k | — |
| 5/16/2025 | Housing Starts MoM | 3.00% | — | -11.40% | — |
| 5/16/2025 | Building Permits MoM | -1.20% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 5/16/2025 | Import Price Index MoM | -0.30% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 5/16/2025 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 5/16/2025 | Import Price Index YoY | -0.20% | — | 0.90% | — |
| 5/16/2025 | Export Price Index MoM | -0.40% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 5/16/2025 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | 2.40% | — |
| 5/16/2025 | New York Fed Services Business Activity | — | — | -19.8 | — |
| 5/16/2025 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 53.2 | — | 52.2 | — |
| 5/16/2025 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 59.6 | — | 59.8 | — |
| 5/16/2025 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 48.2 | — | 47.3 | — |
| 5/16/2025 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 6.50% | — | 6.50% | — |
| 5/16/2025 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 4.30% | — | 4.40% | — |
| 5/16/2025 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $112.0b | — |
| 5/16/2025 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | $284.7b | — |
| 5/19/2025 | Leading Index | -0.80% | — | -0.70% | — |
| 5/20/2025 | Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity | — | — | -42.7 | — |
