An upside surprise in the April Producer Price Index (PPI) has sparked a modest selloff in Treasuries this morning.
Core PPI rose 0.5% m/m versus expectations of a 0.2% gain. Some offsetting the upside surprises in the April report were downward revisions across multiple categories of the March report. In other news, the White House announced a list of new tariffs on $18 billion of Chinese imports, ranging from steel to electric vehicles. The tariff on electric vehicles will quadruple to 100% in 2024. In the announcement, the Biden administration cited China’s support/subsidies of its own companies that is fueling excess supply and artificially cheap prices across multiple industries. Later this morning, Fed Chair Powell will join ECB leaders to speak at an event in the Netherlands.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 5/14/2024 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 88.2 | 89.7 | 88.5 | — |
| 5/14/2024 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.30% | 0.50% | 0.20% | -0.10% |
| 5/14/2024 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | 0.50% | 0.20% | -0.10% |
| 5/14/2024 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.20% | 0.40% | 0.20% | — |
| 5/14/2024 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 2.20% | 2.20% | 2.10% | 1.80% |
| 5/14/2024 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.30% | 2.40% | 2.40% | 2.10% |
| 5/14/2024 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | 3.10% | 2.80% | — |
| 5/14/2024 | Revisions: Factory & Durable Goods Orders | ||||
| 5/15/2024 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 2.60% | — |
| 5/15/2024 | Empire Manufacturing | -10 | — | -14.3 | — |
| 5/15/2024 | CPI MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 5/15/2024 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 5/15/2024 | CPI YoY | 3.40% | — | 3.50% | — |
| 5/15/2024 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 3.60% | — | 3.80% | — |
| 5/15/2024 | CPI Index NSA | 313.752 | — | 312.332 | — |
| 5/15/2024 | CPI Core Index SA | 317.734 | — | 316.698 | — |
| 5/15/2024 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | 0.60% | — |
| 5/15/2024 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | 0.60% | — |
| 5/15/2024 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 5/15/2024 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.20% | — | 1.10% | — |
| 5/15/2024 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.10% | — | 1.00% | — |
| 5/15/2024 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.10% | — | 1.10% | — |
| 5/15/2024 | Business Inventories | -0.10% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 5/15/2024 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 51 | — | 51 | — |
| 5/15/2024 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | $51.6b | — |
| 5/15/2024 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $71.5b | — |
| 5/16/2024 | Initial Jobless Claims | 220k | — | 231k | — |
| 5/16/2024 | Continuing Claims | 1780k | — | 1785k | — |
| 5/16/2024 | Housing Starts | 1420k | — | 1321k | — |
| 5/16/2024 | Housing Starts MoM | 7.50% | — | -14.70% | — |
| 5/16/2024 | Building Permits MoM | 0.90% | — | -4.30% | -3.70% |
| 5/16/2024 | Building Permits | 1480k | — | 1458k | 1467k |
| 5/16/2024 | New York Fed Services Business Activity | — | — | -0.6 | — |
| 5/16/2024 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 8 | — | 15.5 | — |
| 5/16/2024 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 5/16/2024 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 5/16/2024 | Import Price Index YoY | 0.40% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 5/16/2024 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 5/16/2024 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | -1.40% | — |
| 5/16/2024 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 5/16/2024 | Capacity Utilization | 78.40% | — | 78.40% | — |
| 5/16/2024 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.10% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 5/17/2024 | Leading Index | -0.30% | — | -0.30% | — |
| 5/21/2024 | Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity | — | — | -12.4 | — |
