Treasury yields are little changed to start the day with no major headlines overnight.
There will be multiple Fed leaders speaking over the next 24 hours, including Powell tomorrow morning, that may provide some insight as to how the China trade détente and yesterday’s CPI report may affect the FOMC’s current policy stance, if at all. Fed funds futures essentially priced out one 25 basis point cut in 2025 following the China announcement (currently priced for 2 cuts in 2025).
Many risk markets have now fully retraced (and more) the post-Liberation Day selloff. Following Monday’s close, the S&P 500 was up 3.18% versus April 2’s level following an intra-period peak decline of 12%. For credit spreads, the ICE BofA High Yield Index (corporate credit) spread was 27 bps tighter versus April 2 after widening as much as 119 bps during the period.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 5/14/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 1.10% | 11.00% | — |
| 5/15/2025 | Empire Manufacturing | -8 | — | -8.1 | — |
| 5/15/2025 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.00% | — | 1.40% | 1.50% |
| 5/15/2025 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.30% | — | 0.80% | 0.90% |
| 5/15/2025 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.50% | 0.60% |
| 5/15/2025 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 5/15/2025 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.20% | — | -0.40% | — |
| 5/15/2025 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.30% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 5/15/2025 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 5/15/2025 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 2.50% | — | 2.70% | — |
| 5/15/2025 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 3.10% | — | 3.30% | — |
| 5/15/2025 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | — | 3.40% | — |
| 5/15/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 228k | — | 228k | — |
| 5/15/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 227.00k | — |
| 5/15/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1890k | — | 1879k | — |
| 5/15/2025 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | -11.2 | — | -26.4 | — |
| 5/15/2025 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.10% | — | -0.30% | — |
| 5/15/2025 | Capacity Utilization | 77.80% | — | 77.80% | — |
| 5/15/2025 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | -0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 5/15/2025 | Business Inventories | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 5/15/2025 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 40 | — | 40 | — |
| 5/16/2025 | Housing Starts | 1363k | — | 1324k | — |
| 5/16/2025 | Building Permits | 1450k | — | 1467k | — |
| 5/16/2025 | Housing Starts MoM | 2.90% | — | -11.40% | — |
| 5/16/2025 | Building Permits MoM | -1.20% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 5/16/2025 | Import Price Index MoM | -0.30% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 5/16/2025 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 5/16/2025 | Import Price Index YoY | -0.20% | — | 0.90% | — |
| 5/16/2025 | Export Price Index MoM | -0.40% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 5/16/2025 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | 2.40% | — |
| 5/16/2025 | New York Fed Services Business Activity | — | — | -19.8 | — |
| 5/16/2025 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 53.4 | — | 52.2 | — |
| 5/16/2025 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 59.6 | — | 59.8 | — |
| 5/16/2025 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 48.2 | — | 47.3 | — |
| 5/16/2025 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 6.50% | — | 6.50% | — |
| 5/16/2025 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 4.30% | — | 4.40% | — |
| 5/16/2025 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $112.0b | — |
| 5/16/2025 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | $284.7b | — |
| 5/19/2025 | Leading Index | -0.80% | — | -0.70% | — |
| 5/20/2025 | Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity | — | — | -42.7 | — |
| 5/21/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 1.10% | — |
