Treasuries are little changed following the release of multiple economic data points.
In April, retail sales were softer than expected for every category except the headline figure. The control group, which is used in the GDP calculation, fell 0.5% m/m versus expectations of a 0.3% increase. The bigger surprise was perhaps the softness in April producer prices (PPI). Core PPI fell 0.4% m/m (+0.3% expected), which was somewhat offset by notable upward revisions to the prior month’s figures. On a related note, Walmart reported stronger than expected earnings for the quarter ending April 30th. Still, management said they expected to raise some prices this month in response to tariffs. For the labor market, initial jobless claims held steady at 229,000 last week, essentially matching expectations. Fed Chair Powell is discussing the Fed’s monetary policy framework at an event this morning.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 5/15/2025 | Empire Manufacturing | -8 | -9.2 | -8.1 | — |
| 5/15/2025 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.00% | 0.10% | 1.40% | 1.70% |
| 5/15/2025 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.30% | 0.20% | 0.80% | 1.10% |
| 5/15/2025 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.30% | 0.10% | 0.50% | 0.80% |
| 5/15/2025 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.30% | -0.20% | 0.40% | 0.50% |
| 5/15/2025 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.20% | -0.50% | -0.40% | 0.00% |
| 5/15/2025 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.30% | -0.40% | -0.10% | 0.40% |
| 5/15/2025 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.30% | -0.10% | 0.10% | 0.20% |
| 5/15/2025 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 2.50% | 2.40% | 2.70% | 3.40% |
| 5/15/2025 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 3.10% | 3.10% | 3.30% | 4.00% |
| 5/15/2025 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | 2.90% | 3.40% | 3.50% |
| 5/15/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 228k | 229k | 228k | 229k |
| 5/15/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | 230.50k | 227.00k | 227.25k |
| 5/15/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1890k | 1881k | 1879k | 1872k |
| 5/15/2025 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | -11 | -4 | -26.4 | — |
| 5/15/2025 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.10% | — | -0.30% | — |
| 5/15/2025 | Capacity Utilization | 77.80% | — | 77.80% | — |
| 5/15/2025 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | -0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 5/15/2025 | Business Inventories | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 5/15/2025 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 40 | — | 40 | — |
| 5/16/2025 | Housing Starts | 1363k | — | 1324k | — |
| 5/16/2025 | Building Permits | 1450k | — | 1467k | — |
| 5/16/2025 | Housing Starts MoM | 2.90% | — | -11.40% | — |
| 5/16/2025 | Building Permits MoM | -1.20% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 5/16/2025 | Import Price Index MoM | -0.30% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 5/16/2025 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 5/16/2025 | Import Price Index YoY | -0.30% | — | 0.90% | — |
| 5/16/2025 | Export Price Index MoM | -0.40% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 5/16/2025 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | 2.40% | — |
| 5/16/2025 | New York Fed Services Business Activity | — | — | -19.8 | — |
| 5/16/2025 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 53.4 | — | 52.2 | — |
| 5/16/2025 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 59.6 | — | 59.8 | — |
| 5/16/2025 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 48.2 | — | 47.3 | — |
| 5/16/2025 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 6.50% | — | 6.50% | — |
| 5/16/2025 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 4.40% | — | 4.40% | — |
| 5/16/2025 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $112.0b | — |
| 5/16/2025 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | $284.7b | — |
| 5/19/2025 | Leading Index | -0.80% | — | -0.70% | — |
| 5/20/2025 | Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity | — | — | -42.7 | — |
| 5/21/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 1.10% | — |
| 5/22/2025 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | — | — | -0.03 | — |
| 5/22/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | — | — | 229k | — |
| 5/22/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 230.50k | — |
| 5/22/2025 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1881k | — |
| 5/22/2025 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | — | — | 50.2 | — |
| 5/22/2025 | S&P Global US Services PMI | — | — | 50.8 | — |
| 5/22/2025 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | — | — | 50.6 | — |
| 5/22/2025 | Existing Home Sales | 4.15m | — | 4.02m | — |
| 5/22/2025 | Existing Home Sales MoM | 3.20% | — | -5.90% | — |
| 5/22/2025 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | — | — | -4 | — |
