Treasury yields are little changed so far following this morning’s round of economic data. Initial jobless claims were 222,000 last week, very close to expectations. April housing starts were a bit softer than expected, and the Import Price Index rose 0.9% m/m in April versus expectations of a 0.3% increase. The reaction to yesterday’s CPI report was as we expected. The avoidance of an upside surprise would be well received by bond and equity markets alike, and that’s exactly what happened. Core inflation remains elevated relative to the Fed’s comfort level, but a 0.3% m/m increase in core prices (0.29% unrounded) was a welcome sight after consecutive 0.4% increases the prior two months. Moreover, there was further cooling in shelter costs, which have kept core CPI elevated for several months. Five different Fed leaders will be speaking today, including Vice Chair of Supervision Michael Barr’s testimony before the Senate Banking Committee regarding financial regulation.
Jason Haley Chief Investment Officer
Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised 05/16/24 Revisions: Housing Starts, Permits 05/16/24 Initial Jobless Claims 220k 222k 231k 232k 05/16/24 Continuing Claims 1780k 1794k 1785k 1781k 05/16/24 Housing Starts 1421k 1360k 1321k 1287k 05/16/24 Building Permits 1480k 1440k 1458k 1485k 05/16/24 Housing Starts MoM 7.60% 5.70% -14.70% -16.80% 05/16/24 Building Permits MoM 0.90% -3.00% -4.30% -5.00% 05/16/24 New York Fed Services Business Activity — 3 -0.6 — 05/16/24 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 7.8 4.5 15.5 — 05/16/24 Import Price Index MoM 0.30% 0.90% 0.40% 0.60% 05/16/24 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM 0.10% 0.70% 0.00% 0.10% 05/16/24 Import Price Index YoY 0.40% 1.10% 0.40% — 05/16/24 Export Price Index MoM 0.20% 0.50% 0.30% 0.10% 05/16/24 Export Price Index YoY -1.10% -1.00% -1.40% -1.60% 05/16/24 Industrial Production MoM 0.10% — 0.40% — 05/16/24 Capacity Utilization 78.40% — 78.40% — 05/16/24 Manufacturing (SIC) Production 0.10% — 0.50% — 05/17/24 Leading Index -0.30% — -0.30% —
Jason Haley Chief Investment Officer
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