Nonfarm payrolls added 177,000 jobs in April, 39,000 more than expected, and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%.
Average hourly earnings rose less than expected at a 0.2% m/m rate, and on a year-over-year basis, wage growth was unchanged at 3.8%. The only real negative aspect of the report was a -58,000 revision to the prior two months’ payrolls growth, but overall, it was another picture of a US labor market on solid footing. Whether that changes materially in the coming months related to tariff policies/uncertainty remains to be seen. Treasury yields are up 4-5 basis points in a near-parallel fashion following the release, and S&P 500 futures are up 0.75% as of 8:44 am ET.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 5/2/2025 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 138k | 177k | 228k | 185k |
| 5/2/2025 | Change in Private Payrolls | 125k | 167k | 209k | 170k |
| 5/2/2025 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | -5k | -1k | 1k | 3k |
| 5/2/2025 | Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg | — | 155k | 152k | 133k |
| 5/2/2025 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | -58k | -48k | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Unemployment Rate | 4.20% | 4.20% | 4.20% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.50% | 62.60% | 62.50% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Underemployment Rate | — | 7.80% | 7.90% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | 0.20% | 0.30% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.90% | 3.80% | 3.80% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.2 | 34.3 | 34.2 | 34.3 |
| 5/2/2025 | Factory Orders | 4.50% | — | 0.60% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Durable Goods Orders | 9.20% | — | 9.20% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.00% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.10% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 5/5/2025 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 51.4 | — | 51.4 | — |
| 5/5/2025 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | — | — | 51.2 | — |
| 5/5/2025 | ISM Services Index | 50.2 | — | 50.8 | — |
| 5/5/2025 | ISM Services Prices Paid | — | — | 60.9 | — |
| 5/5/2025 | ISM Services New Orders | — | — | 50.4 | — |
| 5/5/2025 | ISM Services Employment | — | — | 46.2 | — |
| 5/6/2025 | Trade Balance | -$122.0b | — | -$122.7b | — |
| 5/7/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -4.20% | — |
| 5/7/2025 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 4.50% | — | 4.50% | — |
| 5/7/2025 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 4.25% | — | 4.25% | — |
| 5/7/2025 | Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate | — | — | 4.40% | — |
| 5/7/2025 | Consumer Credit | $10.000b | — | -$0.810b | — |
| 5/8/2025 | Nonfarm Productivity | -0.50% | — | 1.50% | — |
| 5/8/2025 | Unit Labor Costs | 5.40% | — | 2.20% | — |
| 5/8/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | — | — | 241k | — |
| 5/8/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 226.00k | — |
| 5/8/2025 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1916k | — |
| 5/8/2025 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | — | — | 2.40% | — |
| 5/8/2025 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | — | — | 0.50% | — |
| 5/8/2025 | NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations | — | — | 3.58% | — |
