Treasury yields are 2-3 basis points higher across the curve following another quiet overnight session.
Month-to-date, yields are 21-28 bps lower (curve flatter), and implied rate volatility, as measured by the MOVE Index, is approaching the 2-year low reached at the end of March. Fixed income spreads continue to trade directionally with rate volatility, with corporate and Agency MBS option-adjusted spreads (OAS) 3-9 basis points tighter, respectively, on the month according to ICE BofA index data.
Yesterday’s slate of Fed speakers struck a tone of ‘cautious optimism,’ keeping with the common theme from Fed leaders over the last several weeks. “It’s too early to tell whether the recent slowdown in the disinflationary process will be long lasting,” said Fed Vice Chair Jefferson yesterday. “The better reading for April is encouraging.”
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 05/21/24 | Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity | — | -0.6 | -12.4 | — |
| 05/22/24 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 0.50% | — |
| 05/22/24 | Existing Home Sales | 4.22m | — | 4.19m | — |
| 05/22/24 | Existing Home Sales MoM | 0.80% | — | -4.30% | — |
| 05/22/24 | FOMC Meeting Minutes | — | — | — | — |
| 05/23/24 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | 0.15 | — | 0.15 | — |
| 05/23/24 | Initial Jobless Claims | 220k | — | 222k | — |
| 05/23/24 | Continuing Claims | 1791k | — | 1794k | — |
| 05/23/24 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 50 | — | 50 | — |
| 05/23/24 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 51.2 | — | 51.3 | — |
| 05/23/24 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | 51 | — | 51.3 | — |
| 05/23/24 | New Home Sales | 679k | — | 693k | — |
| 05/23/24 | New Home Sales MoM | -2.00% | — | 8.80% | — |
| 05/23/24 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | -7 | — | -8 | — |
| 05/24/24 | Durable Goods Orders | -0.80% | — | 2.60% | 0.90% |
| 05/24/24 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.10% | — | 0.20% | 0.00% |
| 05/24/24 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.10% | — | 0.10% | -0.20% |
| 05/24/24 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.10% | — | 0.00% | -0.10% |
| 05/24/24 | Bloomberg May United States Economic Survey | ||||
| 05/24/24 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 67.8 | — | 67.4 | — |
| 05/24/24 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 68.8 | — |
| 05/24/24 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 66.5 | — |
| 05/24/24 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 3.40% | — | 3.50% | — |
| 05/24/24 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 3.00% | — | 3.10% | — |
| 05/24/24 | Kansas City Fed Services Activity | — | — | 9 | — |
