Yesterday’s release of the May 1 FOMC minutes didn’t reveal anything major, but it was clear that the discussions related to the potential need for more rate hikes and the slowing of balance sheet reduction were not unanimous.
“Various” participants “mentioned a willingness to tighten policy further should risks to inflation materialize in a way that such action became appropriate.” However, recall Tuesday’s comment from the typically hawkish Governor Waller that further rate hikes are “probably unnecessary” in light of recent inflation data. The ‘higher for longer’ theme appeared prevalent throughout the now 3-weeks stale discussion, which aligns with Fedspeak over the last several weeks.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 5/23/2024 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | 0.13 | -0.23 | 0.15 | -0.04 |
| 5/23/2024 | Initial Jobless Claims | 220k | 215k | 222k | 223k |
| 5/23/2024 | Continuing Claims | 1793k | 1794k | 1794k | 1786k |
| 5/23/2024 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 49.9 | — | 50 | — |
| 5/23/2024 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 51.2 | — | 51.3 | — |
| 5/23/2024 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | 51.2 | — | 51.3 | — |
| 5/23/2024 | New Home Sales | 678k | — | 693k | — |
| 5/23/2024 | New Home Sales MoM | -2.20% | — | 8.80% | — |
| 5/23/2024 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | -7 | — | -8 | — |
| 5/24/2024 | Durable Goods Orders | -0.80% | — | 2.60% | 0.90% |
| 5/24/2024 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.10% | — | 0.20% | 0.00% |
| 5/24/2024 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.10% | — | 0.10% | -0.20% |
| 5/24/2024 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.10% | — | 0.00% | -0.10% |
| 5/24/2024 | Bloomberg May United States Economic Survey | ||||
| 5/24/2024 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 67.7 | — | 67.4 | — |
| 5/24/2024 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 68.8 | — | 68.8 | — |
| 5/24/2024 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 67 | — | 66.5 | — |
| 5/24/2024 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 3.40% | — | 3.50% | — |
| 5/24/2024 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 3.10% | — | 3.10% | — |
| 5/24/2024 | Kansas City Fed Services Activity | — | — | 9 | — |
| 5/28/2024 | House Price Purchase Index QoQ | — | — | 1.50% | — |
| 5/28/2024 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 0.50% | — | 1.20% | — |
| 5/28/2024 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 0.30% | — | 0.61% | — |
| 5/28/2024 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | — | 6.38% | — |
| 5/28/2024 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | — | — | 7.29% | — |
| 5/28/2024 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 96.5 | — | 97 | — |
| 5/28/2024 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | — | 142.9 | — |
| 5/28/2024 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | — | 66.4 | — |
| 5/28/2024 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | — | — | -14.5 | — |
| 5/29/2024 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 1.90% | — |
| 5/29/2024 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | — | — | -7 | — |
| 5/29/2024 | Richmond Fed Business Conditions | — | — | -6 | — |
| 5/29/2024 | Dallas Fed Services Activity | — | — | -10.6 | — |
| 5/29/2024 | Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | ||||
| 5/30/2024 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 1.20% | — | 1.60% | — |
| 5/30/2024 | Personal Consumption | — | — | 2.50% | — |
| 5/30/2024 | GDP Price Index | 3.10% | — | 3.10% | — |
| 5/30/2024 | Core PCE Price Index QoQ | — | — | 3.70% | — |
| 5/30/2024 | Initial Jobless Claims | — | — | 215k | — |
| 5/30/2024 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1794k | — |
| 5/30/2024 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$91.4b | — | -$91.8b | — |
| 5/30/2024 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | — | — | -0.40% | — |
| 5/30/2024 | Retail Inventories MoM | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 5/30/2024 | Pending Home Sales MoM | — | — | 3.40% | — |
| 5/30/2024 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | — | — | -4.50% | — |
