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Author Jason Haley

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Treasuries emerged from the long weekend with solid demand as markets trade with some optimism that an Iran deal may be coming soon.

Yields are 6-8 basis points lower across the curve, although the rally faded a bit overnight on reports of fresh US strikes on Iranian assets. Later this morning, the March S&P/Cotality 20-city composite is expected to show a second consecutive monthly decline in home prices and year-over-year price appreciation (HPA) of less than 1%. The 30-year national average of HPA is 5% according to the index, and the last year-over-year increase of 5% or more was in June 2024 amid heightened affordability challenges for the US housing market.  

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date EventSurveyActualPrior
5/26/2026Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index-0.030.14-0.2
5/26/2026Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity-13-23.6-16.5
5/26/2026FHFA House Price Index MoM0.10%     —0.00%
5/26/2026House Price Purchase Index QoQ     —     —0.80%
5/26/2026S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA-0.10%     —-0.05%
5/26/2026S&P Cotality CS 20-City YoY NSA0.90%     —0.90%
5/26/2026S&P Cotality CS US HPI YoY NSA0.72%     —0.67%
5/26/2026Conf. Board Consumer Confidence92     —92.8
5/26/2026Conf. Board Present Situation123     —123.8
5/26/2026Conf. Board Expectations71.9     —72.2
5/26/2026Dallas Fed Manf. Activity0     —-2.3
5/27/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-2.30%
5/27/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —42.250k
5/27/2026Richmond Fed Manufact. Index4     —3
5/27/2026Richmond Fed Business Conditions     —     —-6
5/27/2026Dallas Fed Services Activity     —     —-9.9
5/28/2026Personal Income0.40%     —0.60%
5/28/2026Personal Spending0.50%     —0.90%
5/28/2026Real Personal Spending0.10%     —0.20%
5/28/2026PCE Price Index MoM0.50%     —0.70%
5/28/2026PCE Price Index YoY3.80%     —3.50%
5/28/2026Core PCE Price Index MoM0.30%     —0.30%
5/28/2026Core PCE Price Index YoY3.30%     —3.20%
5/28/2026Initial Jobless Claims211k     —209k
5/28/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —202.50k
5/28/2026Continuing Claims1781k     —1782k
5/28/2026Durable Goods Orders3.90%     —0.80%
5/28/2026Durables Ex Transportation0.50%     —0.90%
5/28/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.40%     —3.40%
5/28/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.60%     —1.20%
5/28/2026GDP Annualized QoQ2.00%     —2.00%
5/28/2026Personal Consumption1.70%     —1.60%
5/28/2026GDP Price Index3.60%     —3.60%
5/28/2026Core PCE Price Index QoQ4.30%     —4.30%
5/28/2026New Home Sales660k     —682k
5/28/2026New Home Sales MoM-3.50%     —7.40%
5/28/2026Building Permits1442k     —1442k
5/28/2026Building Permits MoM     —     —5.80%
5/29/2026Advance Goods Trade Balance-$86.5b     —-$87.9b
5/29/2026Advance Goods Imports MoM SA     —     —3.30%
5/29/2026Advance Goods Exports MoM SA     —     —2.50%
5/29/2026Retail Inventories MoM0.40%     —0.70%
5/29/2026Wholesale Inventories MoM0.80%     —1.30%
5/29/2026MNI Chicago PMI50.5     —49.2
6/1/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI     —     —55.3
6/1/2026ISM Manufacturing53.2     —52.7
6/1/2026ISM Prices Paid     —     —84.6
6/1/2026ISM New Orders     —     —54.1
6/1/2026ISM Employment     —     —46.4
6/1/2026Construction Spending MoM     —     —0.60%
6/2/2026JOLTS Job Openings     —     —6866k
6/2/2026JOLTS Job Openings Rate     —     —4.10%
6/2/2026JOLTS Quits Level     —     —3171k
6/2/2026JOLTS Quits Rate     —     —2.00%
6/2/2026JOLTS Layoffs Level     —     —1867k
6/2/2026JOLTS Layoffs Rate     —     —1.20%
6/02/2026Wards Total Vehicle Sales16.00m     —15.92m

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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