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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

A modest bull flattening of the Treasury curve emerged overnight amid lower oil prices and a softer than expected Australian CPI figure.

The 2-year Treasury yield is now at 4.02%, down 10 basis points from Friday’s 15-month high. Risk markets are responding well to the decline in Treasury yields and oil prices, and US stocks are poised for a fifth consecutive daily rally. Last week’s selloff in the bond market weighed further on mortgage activity. The MBA mortgage applications index fell 8.5% from the prior week, driven by an 18.1% decline in refinance applications. The sharp drop in refi activity corresponded with a 9-basis point increase in the average 30-year conventional contract rate to 6.65%, the highest since last August.   

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
5/27/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —-8.50%-2.30%
5/27/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —35.750k42.250k
5/27/2026Richmond Fed Manufact. Index4     —3
5/27/2026Richmond Fed Business Conditions-5     —-6
5/27/2026Dallas Fed Services Activity-6     —-9.9
5/28/2026Personal Income0.40%     —0.60%
5/28/2026Personal Spending0.50%     —0.90%
5/28/2026Real Personal Spending0.10%     —0.20%
5/28/2026PCE Price Index MoM0.50%     —0.70%
5/28/2026PCE Price Index YoY3.80%     —3.50%
5/28/2026Core PCE Price Index MoM0.30%     —0.30%
5/28/2026Core PCE Price Index YoY3.30%     —3.20%
5/28/2026Initial Jobless Claims212k     —209k
5/28/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —202.50k
5/28/2026Continuing Claims1781k     —1782k
5/28/2026Durable Goods Orders3.90%     —0.80%
5/28/2026Durables Ex Transportation0.50%     —0.90%
5/28/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.40%     —3.40%
5/28/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.60%     —1.20%
5/28/2026GDP Annualized QoQ2.00%     —2.00%
5/28/2026Personal Consumption1.60%     —1.60%
5/28/2026GDP Price Index3.60%     —3.60%
5/28/2026Core PCE Price Index QoQ4.30%     —4.30%
5/28/2026New Home Sales660k     —682k
5/28/2026New Home Sales MoM-3.50%     —7.40%
5/28/2026Building Permits1442k     —1442k
5/28/2026Building Permits MoM     —     —5.80%
5/29/2026Advance Goods Trade Balance-$87.0b     —-$87.9b
5/29/2026Advance Goods Imports MoM SA     —     —3.30%
5/29/2026Advance Goods Exports MoM SA     —     —2.50%
5/29/2026Retail Inventories MoM0.40%     —0.70%
5/29/2026Wholesale Inventories MoM0.80%     —1.30%
5/29/2026MNI Chicago PMI50.3     —49.2
6/1/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI     —     —55.3
6/1/2026ISM Manufacturing53.2     —52.7
6/1/2026ISM Prices Paid     —     —84.6
6/1/2026ISM New Orders     —     —54.1
6/1/2026ISM Employment     —     —46.4
6/1/2026Construction Spending MoM     —     —0.60%
6/2/2026JOLTS Job Openings     —     —6866k
6/2/2026JOLTS Job Openings Rate     —     —4.10%
6/2/2026JOLTS Quits Level     —     —3171k
6/2/2026JOLTS Quits Rate     —     —2.00%
6/2/2026JOLTS Layoffs Level     —     —1867k
6/2/2026JOLTS Layoffs Rate     —     —1.20%
6/02/2026Wards Total Vehicle Sales16.00m     —15.92m
6/3/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-8.50%
6/3/2026ADP Employment Change     —     —109k
6/3/2026S&P Global US Services PMI     —     —50.9
6/3/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —51.7
6/3/2026Factory Orders     —     —1.50%
6/3/2026Factory Orders Ex Trans     —     —1.60%
6/3/2026ISM Services Index53.6     —53.6
6/3/2026ISM Services Prices Paid     —     —70.7
6/3/2026ISM Services New Orders     —     —53.5
6/3/2026ISM Services Employment     —     —48
6/3/2026Durable Goods Orders     —     —     —
6/3/2026Durables Ex Transportation     —     —     —
6/3/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —     —
6/3/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —     —
6/3/2026Fed Releases Beige Book   

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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