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Author Jason Haley

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Estimated

Treasury yields tracked oil prices higher overnight, and investors are now responding to a slew of economic data releases this morning.

Personal income growth was flat in April versus expectations of 0.4% m/m, and consumer spending was in line with expectations at 0.5% m/m. The April PCE inflation report was softer than expected for both headline and core readings. On a year-over-year basis, core PCE matched expectations at 3.3%.

Durable goods orders significantly outpaced expectations in April at 7.9% m/m, but most of that outpaced growth was attributable to a 165% monthly increase in commercial aircraft orders (a typically volatile series). Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, which are used as a proxy for business investment, fell 1.1% in April versus expectations of a 0.4% gain.

Lastly, the second estimate of Q1 GDP was revised lower to 1.6%, with previous estimates of consumer spending revised lower. GDP, excluding trade and inventory adjustments, was slightly weaker but still solid at 2.7%. Treasuries have given back some of this morning’s losses, given the softer-than-expected PCE inflation data, with long-end yields now slightly lower on the day.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
5/28/2026Building Permits1442k1423k1442k     —
5/28/2026Building Permits MoM     —4.40%5.80%     —
5/28/2026Personal Income0.40%0.00%0.60%0.50%
5/28/2026Personal Spending0.50%0.50%0.90%1.00%
5/28/2026Real Personal Spending0.10%0.10%0.20%0.30%
5/28/2026PCE Price Index MoM0.50%0.40%0.70%     —
5/28/2026PCE Price Index YoY3.80%3.80%3.50%     —
5/28/2026Core PCE Price Index MoM0.30%0.20%0.30%     —
5/28/2026Core PCE Price Index YoY3.30%3.30%3.20%     —
5/28/2026Initial Jobless Claims211k215k209k210k
5/28/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —209.00k202.50k202.75k
5/28/2026Continuing Claims1784k1786k1782k1771k
5/28/2026Durable Goods Orders4.00%7.90%0.80%1.30%
5/28/2026Durables Ex Transportation0.50%1.10%0.90%1.10%
5/28/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.40%-1.10%3.40%3.90%
5/28/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.60%0.40%1.20%1.30%
5/28/2026GDP Annualized QoQ2.00%1.60%2.00%     —
5/28/2026Personal Consumption1.60%1.40%1.60%     —
5/28/2026GDP Price Index3.60%3.50%3.60%     —
5/28/2026Core PCE Price Index QoQ4.30%4.40%4.30%     —
5/28/2026New Home Sales660k     —682k     —
5/28/2026New Home Sales MoM-3.20%     —7.40%     —
5/29/2026Advance Goods Trade Balance-$87.2b     —-$87.9b-$87.4b
5/29/2026Advance Goods Imports MoM SA1.70%     —3.30%3.50%
5/29/2026Advance Goods Exports MoM SA2.40%     —2.50%3.00%
5/29/2026Retail Inventories MoM0.50%     —0.70%0.60%
5/29/2026Wholesale Inventories MoM0.80%     —1.30%     —
5/29/2026MNI Chicago PMI50.3     —49.2     —
6/1/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI     —     —55.3     —
6/1/2026ISM Manufacturing53.2     —52.7     —
6/1/2026ISM Prices Paid     —     —84.6     —
6/1/2026ISM New Orders     —     —54.1     —
6/1/2026ISM Employment     —     —46.4     —
6/1/2026Construction Spending MoM0.30%     —0.60%     —
6/2/2026JOLTS Job Openings6866k     —6866k     —
6/2/2026JOLTS Job Openings Rate     —     —4.10%     —
6/2/2026JOLTS Quits Level     —     —3171k     —
6/2/2026JOLTS Quits Rate     —     —2.00%     —
6/2/2026JOLTS Layoffs Level     —     —1867k     —
6/2/2026JOLTS Layoffs Rate     —     —1.20%     —
6/02/2026Wards Total Vehicle Sales16.00m     —15.92m     —
6/3/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-8.50%     —
6/3/2026ADP Employment Change110k     —109k     —
6/3/2026S&P Global US Services PMI     —     —50.9     —
6/3/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —51.7     —
6/3/2026Factory Orders     —     —1.50%     —
6/3/2026Factory Orders Ex Trans     —     —1.60%     —
6/3/2026ISM Services Index53.8     —53.6     —
6/3/2026ISM Services Prices Paid     —     —70.7     —
6/3/2026ISM Services New Orders     —     —53.5     —
6/3/2026ISM Services Employment     —     —48     —
6/3/2026Durable Goods Orders     —     —7.90%     —
6/3/2026Durables Ex Transportation     —     —1.10%     —
6/3/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —-1.10%     —
6/3/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.40%     —
6/3/2026Fed Releases Beige Book    
6/4/2026Challenger Job Cuts Total     —     —83387     —
6/4/2026Challenger Job Cuts YoY     —     —-20.90%     —
6/4/2026Nonfarm Productivity     —     —0.80%     —
6/4/2026Unit Labor Costs     —     —2.30%     —
6/4/2026Initial Jobless Claims     —     —215k     —
6/4/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —209.00k     —
6/4/2026Continuing Claims     —     —1786k     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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