The day begins with a continuation of yesterday’s bear steepening move for Treasuries, albeit just ever so slightly this morning.
Yesterday’s action saw intermediate and long-end yields increase 8-10 basis points on a combination of factors, including a relatively soft 5-year Treasury auction, improved consumer confidence readings, and hawkish comments from a Fed leader. Regarding the latter, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, who is not a voting member of the FOMC this year or next, expressed an openness to further tighten monetary policy if needed and suggested he is not alone in that assessment. To be fair, he essentially mimicked minutes of the May 1 FOMC meeting when he said “various participants” mentioned a willingness to do so as needed. He also emphasized that policy remaining restrictive “for an extended period of time” is a more likely outcome (just another way to say ‘higher for longer’).
The MBA mortgage applications index fell 5.7% last week, including a 13.6% decline in refinance applications. According to survey data, the average 30-year conventional contract rate rose 4 basis points over the week to 7.05%. Later today, $44 billion of new 7-year notes will be auctioned.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 5/29/2024 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -5.70% | 1.90% | — |
| 5/29/2024 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | -7 | — | -7 | — |
| 5/29/2024 | Richmond Fed Business Conditions | — | — | -6 | — |
| 5/29/2024 | Dallas Fed Services Activity | -9.4 | — | -10.6 | — |
| 5/29/2024 | Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | ||||
| 5/30/2024 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 1.30% | — | 1.60% | — |
| 5/30/2024 | Personal Consumption | 2.20% | — | 2.50% | — |
| 5/30/2024 | GDP Price Index | 3.10% | — | 3.10% | — |
| 5/30/2024 | Core PCE Price Index QoQ | 3.70% | — | 3.70% | — |
| 5/30/2024 | Initial Jobless Claims | 217k | — | 215k | — |
| 5/30/2024 | Continuing Claims | 1796k | — | 1794k | — |
| 5/30/2024 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$92.3b | — | -$91.8b | — |
| 5/30/2024 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.10% | — | -0.40% | — |
| 5/30/2024 | Retail Inventories MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 5/30/2024 | Pending Home Sales MoM | -1.00% | — | 3.40% | — |
| 5/30/2024 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | -2.00% | — | -4.50% | — |
| 5/31/2024 | Personal Income | 0.30% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 5/31/2024 | Personal Spending | 0.30% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 5/31/2024 | Real Personal Spending | 0.10% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 5/31/2024 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 5/31/2024 | PCE Deflator YoY | 2.70% | — | 2.70% | — |
| 5/31/2024 | PCE Core Deflator MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 5/31/2024 | PCE Core Deflator YoY | 2.80% | — | 2.80% | — |
| 5/31/2024 | MNI Chicago PMI | 41.1 | — | 37.9 | — |
| 6/3/2024 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | — | — | 50.9 | — |
| 6/3/2024 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.20% | — | -0.20% | — |
| 6/3/2024 | ISM Manufacturing | 49.6 | — | 49.2 | — |
| 6/3/2024 | ISM Prices Paid | — | — | 60.9 | — |
| 6/3/2024 | ISM New Orders | — | — | 49.1 | — |
| 6/3/2024 | ISM Employment | — | — | 48.6 | — |
| 6/3/2024 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 15.86m | — | 15.74m | — |
| 6/4/2024 | JOLTS Job Openings | 8300k | — | 8488k | — |
| 6/4/2024 | Factory Orders | 0.70% | — | 1.60% | 0.80% |
| 6/4/2024 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | 0.50% | 0.40% |
| 6/4/2024 | Durable Goods Orders | — | — | 0.70% | — |
| 6/4/2024 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | — | 0.40% | — |
| 6/4/2024 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 6/4/2024 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.40% | — |
| 6/5/2024 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -5.70% | — |
| 6/5/2024 | ADP Employment Change | 180k | — | 192k | — |
| 6/5/2024 | S&P Global US Services PMI | — | — | 54.8 | — |
| 6/5/2024 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | — | — | 54.4 | — |
| 6/5/2024 | ISM Services Index | 50.7 | — | 49.4 | — |
| 6/5/2024 | ISM Services Prices Paid | — | — | 59.2 | — |
| 6/5/2024 | ISM Services Employment | — | — | 45.9 | — |
| 6/5/2024 | ISM Services New Orders | — | — | 52.2 | — |
