A downside surprise in the April jobs data has ignited a strong rally in Treasuries this morning.
Nonfarm payrolls added 175,000 jobs in April, 65,000 below expectations, and the unemployment rate rose slightly to 3.9%. If rounded to three decimal points, the unemployment rate rose from 3.829% to 3.865%, so a very modest move. However, markets are also reacting to the fact that average hourly earnings rose just 0.2% m/m in April (0.3% expected), and the year-over-year measure fell 20 basis points to 3.9%. The average workweek also contracted over the month, falling from 34.4 hours to 34.3 hours. One wouldn’t typically expect a 10-12 basis point decline in Treasury yields following a 6-figure job growth figure and an unemployment rate below 4%, but any employment and inflation data releases that don’t surprise to the upside in the current environment are likely to garner such a reaction in the bond market.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 5/3/2024 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | -22k | — | — |
| 5/3/2024 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 240k | 175k | 303k | 315k |
| 5/3/2024 | Change in Private Payrolls | 193k | 167k | 232k | 243k |
| 5/3/2024 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 5k | 8k | 0k | -4k |
| 5/3/2024 | Unemployment Rate | 3.80% | 3.90% | 3.80% | — |
| 5/3/2024 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | 0.20% | 0.30% | — |
| 5/3/2024 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 4.00% | 3.90% | 4.10% | — |
| 5/3/2024 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.4 | 34.3 | 34.4 | — |
| 5/3/2024 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.70% | 62.70% | 62.70% | — |
| 5/3/2024 | Underemployment Rate | — | 7.40% | 7.30% | — |
| 5/3/2024 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 51 | 51.3 | 50.9 | — |
| 5/3/2024 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | 51 | 51.3 | 50.9 | — |
| 5/3/2024 | ISM Services Index | 52 | 49.4 | 51.4 | — |
| 5/3/2024 | ISM Services Prices Paid | 55 | 59.2 | 53.4 | — |
| 5/3/2024 | ISM Services Employment | 49 | 45.9 | 48.5 | — |
| 5/3/2024 | ISM Services New Orders | 54.5 | 52.2 | 54.4 | — |
| 5/6/2024 | Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices | ||||
| 5/7/2024 | Consumer Credit | $16.500b | — | $14.125b | — |
| 5/8/2024 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -2.30% | — |
| 5/8/2024 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | — | — | 2.30% | — |
| 5/8/2024 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | -0.40% | — | -0.40% | — |
| 5/9/2024 | Initial Jobless Claims | 213k | — | 208k | — |
| 5/9/2024 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1774k | — |
| 5/10/2024 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 76.8 | — | 77.2 | — |
| 5/10/2024 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 79 | — |
| 5/10/2024 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 75 | — | 76 | — |
| 5/10/2024 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 3.30% | — | 3.20% | — |
| 5/10/2024 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 3.00% | — |
| 5/10/2024 | Monthly Budget Statement | — | — | -$236.5b | — |
