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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

A modest Treasury rally has emerged following the release of today’s data. Headline and core PCE for April matched expectations across the board.

The core figure rose 0.2% m/m and held steady at 2.8% y/y. Headline PCE rose 0.3% m/m and 2.7% y/y. Personal income rose 0.3% in April, as expected, but personal spending was slightly below expectations at 0.2%. Adjusted for inflation, spending fell 0.1% last month, and the March spending data was revised slightly lower. The market reaction follows the playbook for the last several months. Any inflation and labor market data that exceeds expectations sparks a sell-off in rates, and anything in line with or below expectations sparks a rally in rates. Given that the release of PCE lags CPI by a few weeks (i.e., a little stale), the reaction has typically been more muted. Yields are currently down 2-3 bps across the Treasury curve.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
5/31/2024Personal Income0.30%0.30%0.50%—
5/31/2024Personal Spending0.30%0.20%0.80%0.70%
5/31/2024Real Personal Spending0.10%-0.10%0.50%0.40%
5/31/2024PCE Deflator MoM0.30%0.30%0.30%—
5/31/2024PCE Deflator YoY2.70%2.70%2.70%—
5/31/2024PCE Core Deflator MoM0.20%0.20%0.30%—
5/31/2024PCE Core Deflator YoY2.80%2.80%2.80%—
5/31/2024MNI Chicago PMI41.6—37.9—
6/3/2024S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI50.9—50.9—
6/3/2024Construction Spending MoM0.20%—-0.20%—
6/3/2024ISM Manufacturing49.7—49.2—
6/3/2024ISM Prices Paid60—60.9—
6/3/2024ISM New Orders——49.1—
6/3/2024ISM Employment——48.6—
6/3/2024Wards Total Vehicle Sales15.80m—15.74m—
6/4/2024JOLTS Job Openings8400k—8488k—
6/4/2024Factory Orders0.60%—1.60%0.80%
6/4/2024Factory Orders Ex Trans0.30%—0.50%0.40%
6/4/2024Durable Goods Orders0.70%—0.70%—
6/4/2024Durables Ex Transportation——0.40%—
6/4/2024Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air——0.30%—
6/4/2024Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air——0.40%—
6/5/2024MBA Mortgage Applications——-5.70%—
6/5/2024ADP Employment Change180k—192k—
6/5/2024S&P Global US Services PMI54.8—54.8—
6/5/2024S&P Global US Composite PMI——54.4—
6/5/2024ISM Services Index51—49.4—
6/5/2024ISM Services Prices Paid——59.2—
6/5/2024ISM Services Employment——45.9—
6/5/2024ISM Services New Orders——52.2—
6/6/2024Challenger Job Cuts YoY——-3.30%—
6/6/2024Revisions: Trade Balance    
6/6/2024Nonfarm Productivity0.30%—0.30%—
6/6/2024Unit Labor Costs4.80%—4.70%—
6/6/2024Trade Balance-$75.1b—-$69.4b—
6/6/2024Initial Jobless Claims220k—219k—
6/6/2024Continuing Claims——1791k—
6/7/2024Two-Month Payroll Net Revision——-22k—
6/7/2024Change in Nonfarm Payrolls180k—175k—
6/7/2024Change in Private Payrolls160k—167k—
6/7/2024Change in Manufact. Payrolls8k—8k—
6/7/2024Unemployment Rate3.90%—3.90%—
6/7/2024Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%—0.20%—
6/7/2024Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.90%—3.90%—
6/7/2024Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.3—34.3—
6/7/2024Labor Force Participation Rate——62.70%—
6/7/2024Underemployment Rate——7.40%—
6/7/2024Wholesale Trade Sales MoM——-1.30%—
6/7/2024Wholesale Inventories MoM——0.20%—
6/7/2024Household Change in Net Worth——$4839b—
6/7/2024Consumer Credit$10.200b—$6.274b—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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