A modest rally in Treasuries emerged overnight following yesterday’s selloff that sent front-end yields 8 basis points higher.
Oil prices are lower and equity futures higher so far this morning on the perception that the Iran ceasefire is holding (for now) despite yesterday’s negative headlines. The MOVE Index, which tracks implied/expected interest rate volatility, plunged in the first two weeks of April when it appeared the conflict was deescalating, but rate volatility has been trending higher again over the last 2+ weeks, which has been negative for MBS valuations, in general. Several data releases will come later this morning, including services PMI, new home sales, and JOLTS. Two Fed governors (Bowman and Barr) will speak at separate events today.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 5/5/2026 | Trade Balance | -$61.0b | -$60.3b | -$57.3b | -$57.8b |
| 5/5/2026 | Imports MoM | 2.70% | 2.30% | 4.30% | 4.40% |
| 5/5/2026 | Exports MoM | 1.90% | 2.00% | 4.20% | 4.10% |
| 5/5/2026 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 51.3 | — | 51.3 | — |
| 5/5/2026 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | 52.1 | — | 52 | — |
| 5/5/2026 | Census Releases February and March New Home Sales | ||||
| 5/5/2026 | ISM Services Index | 53.7 | — | 54 | — |
| 5/5/2026 | ISM Services Prices Paid | 73.5 | — | 70.7 | — |
| 5/5/2026 | New Home Sales | 652k | — | — | — |
| 5/5/2026 | ISM Services New Orders | 57.3 | — | 60.6 | — |
| 5/5/2026 | New Home Sales MoM | 3.00% | — | -17.60% | — |
| 5/5/2026 | ISM Services Employment | 48.3 | — | 45.2 | — |
| 5/5/2026 | JOLTS Job Openings | 6850k | — | 6882k | — |
| 5/5/2026 | JOLTS Job Openings Rate | 4.20% | — | 4.20% | — |
| 5/5/2026 | JOLTS Quits Level | 3029k | — | 2974k | — |
| 5/5/2026 | JOLTS Quits Rate | 1.90% | — | 1.90% | — |
| 5/5/2026 | JOLTS Layoffs Level | 1705k | — | 1721k | — |
| 5/5/2026 | JOLTS Layoffs Rate | 1.10% | — | 1.10% | — |
| 5/5/2026 | Building Permits | — | 1363k | 1372k | — |
| 5/5/2026 | Building Permits MoM | — | -11.40% | -10.80% | — |
| 5/6/2026 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -1.60% | — |
| 5/6/2026 | ADP Employment Change | 120k | — | 62k | — |
| 5/6/2026 | US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement | ||||
| 5/7/2026 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | -78.00% | — |
| 5/7/2026 | Challenger Job Cuts Total | — | — | 60620 | — |
| 5/7/2026 | Nonfarm Productivity | 0.60% | — | 1.80% | — |
| 5/7/2026 | Unit Labor Costs | 2.50% | — | 4.40% | — |
| 5/7/2026 | Initial Jobless Claims | 205k | — | 189k | — |
| 5/7/2026 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 207.50k | — |
| 5/7/2026 | Continuing Claims | 1800k | — | 1785k | — |
| 5/7/2026 | Census Releases February and March Construction Spending | ||||
| 5/7/2026 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.20% | — | -0.30% | — |
| 5/7/2026 | NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations | 3.50% | — | 3.42% | — |
| 5/7/2026 | Consumer Credit | $12.500b | — | $9.484b | — |
| 5/8/2026 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 65k | — | 178k | — |
| 5/8/2026 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | -7k | — |
| 5/8/2026 | Change in Private Payrolls | 75k | — | 186k | — |
| 5/8/2026 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 2k | — | 15k | — |
| 5/8/2026 | Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg | — | — | 68k | — |
| 5/8/2026 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 5/8/2026 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.80% | — | 3.50% | — |
| 5/8/2026 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.2 | — | 34.2 | — |
| 5/8/2026 | Unemployment Rate | 4.30% | — | 4.30% | — |
| 5/8/2026 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.00% | — | 61.90% | — |
| 5/8/2026 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 8.00% | — |
| 5/8/2026 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 49.5 | — | 49.8 | — |
| 5/8/2026 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 52 | — | 52.5 | — |
| 5/8/2026 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 48 | — | 48.1 | — |
| 5/8/2026 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 4.80% | — | 4.70% | — |
| 5/8/2026 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 1.40% | — | 1.40% | — |
| 5/8/2026 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 3.50% | — | 3.50% | — |
| 5/8/2026 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | — | — | 2.70% | — |
| 5/11/2026 | Existing Home Sales | 4.04m | — | 3.98m | — |
| 5/11/2026 | Existing Home Sales MoM | — | — | -3.60% | — |
| 5/12/2026 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | — | — | 95.8 | — |
| 5/12/2026 | ADP Weekly Employment Change | — | — | 39.250k | — |
| 5/12/2026 | CPI MoM | 0.70% | — | 0.90% | — |
| 5/12/2026 | Core CPI MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 5/12/2026 | CPI YoY | 3.80% | — | 3.30% | — |
| 5/12/2026 | Core CPI YoY | 2.70% | — | 2.60% | — |
| 5/12/2026 | CPI Index NSA | 332.59 | — | 330.213 | — |
| 5/12/2026 | Core CPI Index SA | 335.37 | — | 334.165 | — |
| 5/12/2026 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 5/12/2026 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | 0.20% | — |
| 5/12/2026 | Federal Budget Balance | — | — | -$164.1b | — |
