Treasury yields have rallied this morning and are down 6-8 bps across the curve as optimism continues to mount that the US and Iran are nearing a peace deal.
Oil prices are lower, and equity futures are higher, following the same optimism. A similar move we saw in the market yesterday. On the economic data front. Private payrolls reported by the ADP rose 109k in April, though below the estimate. The Treasury also announced its quarterly refunding plan to keep nominal coupon sizes steady and guided towards unchanged auction sizes. This helps alleviate concerns that the Treasury would change guidance and possibly increase supply.
Kirby Hart
Director
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 5/6/2026 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -4.40% | -1.60% | — |
| 5/6/2026 | ADP Employment Change | 120k | 109k | 62k | 61k |
| 5/6/2026 | US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement | ||||
| 5/7/2026 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | -78.00% | — |
| 5/7/2026 | Challenger Job Cuts Total | — | — | 60620 | — |
| 5/7/2026 | Nonfarm Productivity | 0.60% | — | 1.80% | — |
| 5/7/2026 | Unit Labor Costs | 2.50% | — | 4.40% | — |
| 5/7/2026 | Initial Jobless Claims | 205k | — | 189k | — |
| 5/7/2026 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 207.50k | — |
| 5/7/2026 | Continuing Claims | 1800k | — | 1785k | — |
| 5/7/2026 | Census Releases February and March Construction Spending | ||||
| 5/7/2026 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.20% | — | -0.30% | — |
| 5/7/2026 | NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations | 3.50% | — | 3.42% | — |
| 5/7/2026 | Consumer Credit | $13.250b | — | $9.484b | — |
| 5/8/2026 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 65k | — | 178k | — |
| 5/8/2026 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | -7k | — |
| 5/8/2026 | Change in Private Payrolls | 75k | — | 186k | — |
| 5/8/2026 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 2k | — | 15k | — |
| 5/8/2026 | Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg | — | — | 68k | — |
| 5/8/2026 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 5/8/2026 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.80% | — | 3.50% | — |
| 5/8/2026 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.2 | — | 34.2 | — |
| 5/8/2026 | Unemployment Rate | 4.30% | — | 4.30% | — |
| 5/8/2026 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.00% | — | 61.90% | — |
| 5/8/2026 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 8.00% | — |
| 5/8/2026 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 49.5 | — | 49.8 | — |
| 5/8/2026 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 52 | — | 52.5 | — |
| 5/8/2026 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 48.1 | — | 48.1 | — |
| 5/8/2026 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 4.80% | — | 4.70% | — |
| 5/8/2026 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 1.40% | — | 1.40% | — |
| 5/8/2026 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 3.50% | — | 3.50% | — |
| 5/8/2026 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | — | — | 2.70% | — |
| 5/11/2026 | Existing Home Sales | 4.05m | — | 3.98m | — |
| 5/11/2026 | Existing Home Sales MoM | — | — | -3.60% | — |
| 5/12/2026 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | — | — | 95.8 | — |
| 5/12/2026 | ADP Weekly Employment Change | — | — | 39.250k | — |
| 5/12/2026 | CPI MoM | 0.70% | — | 0.90% | — |
| 5/12/2026 | Core CPI MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 5/12/2026 | CPI YoY | 3.80% | — | 3.30% | — |
| 5/12/2026 | Core CPI YoY | 2.70% | — | 2.60% | — |
| 5/12/2026 | CPI Index NSA | 332.59 | — | 330.213 | — |
| 5/12/2026 | Core CPI Index SA | 335.37 | — | 334.165 | — |
| 5/12/2026 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 5/12/2026 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | 0.20% | — |
| 5/12/2026 | Federal Budget Balance | — | — | -$164.1b | — |
| 5/13/2026 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -4.40% | — |
| 5/13/2026 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 5/13/2026 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 5/13/2026 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | — | — | 0.20% | — |
| 5/13/2026 | PPI Final Demand YoY | — | — | 4.00% | — |
| 5/13/2026 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | — | — | 3.80% | — |
| 5/13/2026 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | — | 3.60% | — |
