A modest rally in Treasuries overnight was fueled by central bank and geopolitical headlines. Australia’s central bank kept rates unchanged, but more importantly, its guidance was notably less hawkish relative to prior meetings. On the geopolitical front, Israel seized control of the Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt in an attempt to dismantle a Hamas stronghold, according to Israeli leadership. In Fed news, John Williams (NY Fed) said yesterday that “eventually we’ll have rate cuts” and that monetary policy is in a “very good place” for now. To say that rate cuts will eventually happen with no defined timeframe is not exactly a major revelation, but like Powell last week, he appeared careful not to introduce the possibility of rate hikes.
Jason Haley Chief Investment Officer
Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised 5/7/2024 Consumer Credit $15.000b — $14.125b — 5/8/2024 MBA Mortgage Applications — — -2.30% — 5/8/2024 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 0.80% — 2.30% — 5/8/2024 Wholesale Inventories MoM -0.40% — -0.40% — 5/9/2024 Initial Jobless Claims 213k — 208k — 5/9/2024 Continuing Claims 1782k — 1774k — 5/10/2024 U. of Mich. Sentiment 76.2 — 77.2 — 5/10/2024 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 78.7 — 79 — 5/10/2024 U. of Mich. Expectations 75 — 76 — 5/10/2024 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 3.30% — 3.20% — 5/10/2024 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 3.00% — 3.00% — 5/10/2024 Monthly Budget Statement $250.0b — -$236.5b — 5/13/2024 NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations — — 3.00% — 5/14/2024 NFIB Small Business Optimism — — 88.5 — 5/14/2024 PPI Final Demand MoM 0.30% — 0.20% — 5/14/2024 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% — 0.20% — 5/14/2024 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM — — 0.20% — 5/14/2024 PPI Final Demand YoY — — 2.10% — 5/14/2024 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY — — 2.40% — 5/14/2024 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY — — 2.80% — 5/14/2024 Revisions: Factory & Durable Goods Orders
Jason Haley Chief Investment Officer
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