The day begins with a more modest continuation of yesterday’s trade (stocks higher; oil prices and Treasury yields lower).
US officials are reportedly waiting on Iran’s response to its peace proposal, which called for a moratorium on Iran’s uranium enrichment program for a removal of sanctions. Initial jobless claims bounced higher last week, but less than expected at 200,000. This brings the 2026 average to 210,000, a historically low level and below the average of the prior three years. The total number of people continuing to file unemployment claims was less than expected as well and has been on a steady decline since last October. Five different Fed leaders will speak today, including Beth Hammack and Neel Kashkari, both of whom dissented against the inclusion of an easing bias in the last FOMC statement.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 5/7/2026 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | -20.90% | -78.00% | — |
| 5/7/2026 | Challenger Job Cuts Total | 70000 | 83387 | 60620 | — |
| 5/7/2026 | Nonfarm Productivity | 0.60% | 0.80% | 1.80% | 1.60% |
| 5/7/2026 | Unit Labor Costs | 2.50% | 2.30% | 4.40% | 4.60% |
| 5/7/2026 | Initial Jobless Claims | 205k | 200k | 189k | 190k |
| 5/7/2026 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | 203.25k | 207.50k | 207.75k |
| 5/7/2026 | Continuing Claims | 1800k | 1766k | 1785k | 1776k |
| 5/7/2026 | Census Releases February and March Construction Spending | ||||
| 5/7/2026 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.30% | — | — | — |
| 5/7/2026 | NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations | 3.50% | — | 3.42% | — |
| 5/7/2026 | Consumer Credit | $13.720b | — | $9.484b | — |
| 5/8/2026 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 65k | — | 178k | — |
| 5/8/2026 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | -7k | — |
| 5/8/2026 | Change in Private Payrolls | 75k | — | 186k | — |
| 5/8/2026 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 1k | — | 15k | — |
| 5/8/2026 | Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg | — | — | 68k | — |
| 5/8/2026 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 5/8/2026 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.80% | — | 3.50% | — |
| 5/8/2026 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.2 | — | 34.2 | — |
| 5/8/2026 | Unemployment Rate | 4.30% | — | 4.30% | — |
| 5/8/2026 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.00% | — | 61.90% | — |
| 5/8/2026 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 8.00% | — |
| 5/8/2026 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 49.5 | — | 49.8 | — |
| 5/8/2026 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 52.3 | — | 52.5 | — |
| 5/8/2026 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 48.1 | — | 48.1 | — |
| 5/8/2026 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 4.80% | — | 4.70% | — |
| 5/8/2026 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 1.40% | — | 1.40% | — |
| 5/8/2026 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 3.50% | — | 3.50% | — |
| 5/8/2026 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | 1.60% | — | 2.70% | — |
| 5/11/2026 | Existing Home Sales | 4.05m | — | 3.98m | — |
| 5/11/2026 | Existing Home Sales MoM | 2.80% | — | -3.60% | — |
| 5/12/2026 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 96 | — | 95.8 | — |
| 5/12/2026 | ADP Weekly Employment Change | — | — | 39.250k | — |
| 5/12/2026 | CPI MoM | 0.70% | — | 0.90% | — |
| 5/12/2026 | Core CPI MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 5/12/2026 | CPI YoY | 3.80% | — | 3.30% | — |
| 5/12/2026 | Core CPI YoY | 2.70% | — | 2.60% | — |
| 5/12/2026 | CPI Index NSA | 332.48 | — | 330.213 | — |
| 5/12/2026 | Core CPI Index SA | 335.37 | — | 334.165 | — |
| 5/12/2026 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 5/12/2026 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | 0.20% | — |
| 5/12/2026 | Federal Budget Balance | — | — | -$164.1b | — |
| 5/13/2026 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -4.40% | — |
| 5/13/2026 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 5/13/2026 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 5/13/2026 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 5/13/2026 | PPI Final Demand YoY | — | — | 4.00% | — |
| 5/13/2026 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | — | — | 3.80% | — |
| 5/13/2026 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | — | 3.60% | — |
| 5/14/2026 | Import Price Index MoM | — | — | 0.80% | — |
| 5/14/2026 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 5/14/2026 | Import Price Index YoY | — | — | 2.10% | — |
| 5/14/2026 | Export Price Index MoM | — | — | 1.60% | — |
| 5/14/2026 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | 5.60% | — |
| 5/14/2026 | Initial Jobless Claims | — | — | 200k | — |
| 5/14/2026 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 203.25k | — |
| 5/14/2026 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1766k | — |
| 5/14/2026 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.40% | — | 1.70% | — |
| 5/14/2026 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.50% | — | 1.90% | — |
| 5/14/2026 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.30% | — | 0.60% | — |
| 5/14/2026 | Retail Sales Control Group | — | — | 0.70% | — |
| 5/14/2026 | Business Inventories | — | — | 0.40% | — |
