Job growth was better than expected in April.
Nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs versus 65,000 expected, and private payrolls growth exceeded expectations by nearly 50,000 (123k vs. 75k). Looking at the household survey, the unemployment rate held steady on a rounded basis, but not necessarily for good reasons. Household employment fell by 226,000 in April, but it was offset by a 92,000 reduction in the official labor force. Unrounded, the unemployment rate rose from 4.256% to 4.337% (still relatively low). Additionally, the reduction in the labor force pushed the labor participation rate down to 61.8%, the lowest since October 2021 and the fifth consecutive monthly decline in the metric. The initial reaction in the bond market is little change in Treasury yields. The general perception is that a stronger establishment survey (payrolls) is offset by the weaker household survey. Later this morning, the preliminary results of the May University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey will be released.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 5/8/2026 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 65k | 115k | 178k | 185k |
| 5/8/2026 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | -16k | -7k | — |
| 5/8/2026 | Change in Private Payrolls | 75k | 123k | 186k | 190k |
| 5/8/2026 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 3k | -2k | 15k | — |
| 5/8/2026 | Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg | — | 48k | 68k | 63k |
| 5/8/2026 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | 0.20% | 0.20% | — |
| 5/8/2026 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.80% | 3.60% | 3.50% | 3.40% |
| 5/8/2026 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.2 | 34.3 | 34.2 | — |
| 5/8/2026 | Unemployment Rate | 4.30% | 4.30% | 4.30% | — |
| 5/8/2026 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 61.90% | 61.80% | 61.90% | — |
| 5/8/2026 | Underemployment Rate | 8.00% | 8.20% | 8.00% | — |
| 5/8/2026 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 49.5 | — | 49.8 | — |
| 5/8/2026 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 52 | — | 52.5 | — |
| 5/8/2026 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 48.2 | — | 48.1 | — |
| 5/8/2026 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 4.80% | — | 4.70% | — |
| 5/8/2026 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 3.50% | — | 3.50% | — |
| 5/8/2026 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 1.40% | — | 1.40% | — |
| 5/8/2026 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | 1.80% | — | 2.70% | — |
| 5/11/2026 | Existing Home Sales | 4.05m | — | 3.98m | — |
| 5/11/2026 | Existing Home Sales MoM | 2.00% | — | -3.60% | — |
| 5/12/2026 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 96 | — | 95.8 | — |
| 5/12/2026 | ADP Weekly Employment Change | — | — | 39.250k | — |
| 5/12/2026 | CPI MoM | 0.60% | — | 0.90% | — |
| 5/12/2026 | Core CPI MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 5/12/2026 | CPI YoY | 3.70% | — | 3.30% | — |
| 5/12/2026 | Core CPI YoY | 2.70% | — | 2.60% | — |
| 5/12/2026 | CPI Index NSA | 332.59 | — | 330.213 | — |
| 5/12/2026 | Core CPI Index SA | 335.32 | — | 334.165 | — |
| 5/12/2026 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 5/12/2026 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | 0.20% | — |
| 5/12/2026 | Federal Budget Balance | — | — | -$164.1b | — |
| 5/13/2026 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -4.40% | — |
| 5/13/2026 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 5/13/2026 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 5/13/2026 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 5/13/2026 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 4.90% | — | 4.00% | — |
| 5/13/2026 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 4.30% | — | 3.80% | — |
| 5/13/2026 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | — | 3.60% | — |
| 5/14/2026 | Import Price Index MoM | 1.10% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 5/14/2026 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 5/14/2026 | Import Price Index YoY | — | — | 2.10% | — |
| 5/14/2026 | Export Price Index MoM | 1.10% | — | 1.60% | — |
| 5/14/2026 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | 5.60% | — |
| 5/14/2026 | Initial Jobless Claims | 206k | — | 200k | — |
| 5/14/2026 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 203.25k | — |
| 5/14/2026 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1766k | — |
| 5/14/2026 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.50% | — | 1.70% | — |
| 5/14/2026 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.60% | — | 1.90% | — |
| 5/14/2026 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.40% | — | 0.60% | — |
| 5/14/2026 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.40% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 5/14/2026 | Business Inventories | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 5/15/2026 | Empire Manufacturing | 8 | — | 11 | — |
| 5/15/2026 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.20% | — | -0.50% | — |
| 5/15/2026 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.10% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 5/15/2026 | Capacity Utilization | 75.80% | — | 75.70% | — |
