Following a modest selloff overnight, Treasury yields have turned slightly lower after weekly jobless claims unexpectedly rose to the highest level since last August.
Catalysts for the initial selloff overnight were hawkish commentary from the Bank of Japan as well as heavy supply of U.S. bonds (Treasuries and corporate debt). Initial jobless claims rose to 231,000 last week, well above expectations for 212,000 claims and the highest reading since the week ended August 25, 2023. Later today, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will participate in a fireside chat.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 5/9/2024 | Initial Jobless Claims | 212k | 231k | 208k | 209k |
| 5/9/2024 | Continuing Claims | 1782k | 1785k | 1774k | 1768k |
| 5/10/2024 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 76.2 | — | 77.2 | — |
| 5/10/2024 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 79 | — | 79 | — |
| 5/10/2024 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 75 | — | 76 | — |
| 5/10/2024 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 3.20% | — | 3.20% | — |
| 5/10/2024 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 3.00% | — | 3.00% | — |
| 5/10/2024 | Monthly Budget Statement | $250.0b | — | $176.2b | — |
| 5/13/2024 | NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations | — | — | 3.00% | — |
| 5/14/2024 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 88.2 | — | 88.5 | — |
| 5/14/2024 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 5/14/2024 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 5/14/2024 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | — | — | 0.20% | — |
| 5/14/2024 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 2.10% | — | 2.10% | — |
| 5/14/2024 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.30% | — | 2.40% | — |
| 5/14/2024 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | — | 2.80% | — |
| 5/14/2024 | Revisions: Factory & Durable Goods Orders | ||||
| 5/15/2024 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 2.60% | — |
| 5/15/2024 | Empire Manufacturing | -10 | — | -14.3 | — |
| 5/15/2024 | CPI MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 5/15/2024 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 5/15/2024 | CPI YoY | 3.40% | — | 3.50% | — |
| 5/15/2024 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 3.60% | — | 3.80% | — |
| 5/15/2024 | CPI Index NSA | 313.675 | — | 312.332 | — |
| 5/15/2024 | CPI Core Index SA | — | — | 316.698 | — |
| 5/15/2024 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | 0.60% | — |
| 5/15/2024 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | 0.60% | — |
| 5/15/2024 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 5/15/2024 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.20% | — | 1.10% | — |
| 5/15/2024 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.10% | — | 1.00% | — |
| 5/15/2024 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.10% | — | 1.10% | — |
| 5/15/2024 | Business Inventories | 0.00% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 5/15/2024 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 51 | — | 51 | — |
| 5/15/2024 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | $51.6b | — |
| 5/15/2024 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $71.5b | — |
| 5/16/2024 | Initial Jobless Claims | — | — | 231k | — |
| 5/16/2024 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1785k | — |
| 5/16/2024 | Housing Starts | 1440k | — | 1321k | — |
| 5/16/2024 | Housing Starts MoM | 9.00% | — | -14.70% | — |
| 5/16/2024 | Building Permits MoM | 1.60% | — | -4.30% | -3.70% |
| 5/16/2024 | Building Permits | 1490k | — | 1458k | 1467k |
| 5/16/2024 | New York Fed Services Business Activity | — | — | -0.6 | — |
| 5/16/2024 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 8 | — | 15.5 | — |
| 5/16/2024 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 5/16/2024 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | — | — | 0.00% | — |
| 5/16/2024 | Import Price Index YoY | — | — | 0.40% | — |
| 5/16/2024 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 5/16/2024 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | -1.40% | — |
| 5/16/2024 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 5/16/2024 | Capacity Utilization | 78.40% | — | 78.40% | — |
| 5/16/2024 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.00% | — | 0.50% | — |
