Treasury yields open the week slightly lower/flatter following relatively light trading volumes overnight.
The big event for the week is Wednesday’s April CPI report. Current expectations are for a 0.3% monthly increase in core prices, and another downside surprise following the April jobs report miss will likely spark a strong rally in Treasuries. After rising 50 basis points (bps) in April, the 5-year note yield is down 22 bps so far in May. Ahead of Wednesday’s CPI report, we will perhaps get a preview from April producer prices (PPI) tomorrow morning. On Thursday, the April retail sales report will be released, and we will see if there are any signs of consumer spending finally cooling, which has remained strong in 2024 amid higher wage growth. Lastly, there is a full slate of Fed speakers this week, beginning with Mester (Cleveland Fed) and Jefferson (Vice Chair) at an event hosted by the Cleveland Fed today.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 05/13/24 | NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations | — | — | 3.00% | — |
| 05/14/24 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 88.2 | — | 88.5 | — |
| 05/14/24 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 05/14/24 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 05/14/24 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 05/14/24 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 2.20% | — | 2.10% | — |
| 05/14/24 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.30% | — | 2.40% | — |
| 05/14/24 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | — | 2.80% | — |
| 05/14/24 | Revisions: Factory & Durable Goods Orders | ||||
| 05/15/24 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 2.60% | — |
| 05/15/24 | Empire Manufacturing | -10 | — | -14.3 | — |
| 05/15/24 | CPI MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 05/15/24 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 05/15/24 | CPI YoY | 3.40% | — | 3.50% | — |
| 05/15/24 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 3.60% | — | 3.80% | — |
| 05/15/24 | CPI Index NSA | 313.747 | — | 312.332 | — |
| 05/15/24 | CPI Core Index SA | 317.734 | — | 316.698 | — |
| 05/15/24 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | 0.60% | — |
| 05/15/24 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | 0.60% | — |
| 05/15/24 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 05/15/24 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.20% | — | 1.10% | — |
| 05/15/24 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.10% | — | 1.00% | — |
| 05/15/24 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.10% | — | 1.10% | — |
| 05/15/24 | Business Inventories | -0.10% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 05/15/24 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 51 | — | 51 | — |
| 05/15/24 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | $51.6b | — |
| 05/15/24 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $71.5b | — |
| 05/16/24 | Initial Jobless Claims | 220k | — | 231k | — |
| 05/16/24 | Continuing Claims | 1780k | — | 1785k | — |
| 05/16/24 | Housing Starts | 1421k | — | 1321k | — |
| 05/16/24 | Housing Starts MoM | 7.60% | — | -14.70% | — |
| 05/16/24 | Building Permits MoM | 0.90% | — | -4.30% | -3.70% |
| 05/16/24 | Building Permits | 1480k | — | 1458k | 1467k |
| 05/16/24 | New York Fed Services Business Activity | — | — | -0.6 | — |
| 05/16/24 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 8 | — | 15.5 | — |
| 05/16/24 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 05/16/24 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 05/16/24 | Import Price Index YoY | 0.40% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 05/16/24 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 05/16/24 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | -1.40% | — |
| 05/16/24 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 05/16/24 | Capacity Utilization | 78.40% | — | 78.40% | — |
| 05/16/24 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.10% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 05/17/24 | Leading Index | -0.30% | — | -0.30% | — |
