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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields are 6-9 basis points higher to start the day in a nearly parallel fashion (the biggest move in 5-7yr part of the curve).

Potential nominees for cabinet positions in the Trump Administration continue to be floated to the media. This morning, Bloomberg is reporting that some of President-elect Trump’s key advisors are backing Scott Bessent for Treasury secretary, who runs the hedge fund Key Square Group. The general speculation had previously been that Trump would tap hedge fund manager John Paulson or Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick for Treasury. As it impacts the banking and mortgage industries, one area of focus is whether there will be a renewed attempt to recapitalize and privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (FMs). Former FHFA Director Mark Calabria was pushing for this later in the first Trump term before being replaced by Biden early in his administration. John Paulson has publicly voiced support for privatization, but it will likely take some time to get the FMs to the levels of capital necessary to release them from conservatorship, assuming this is indeed a priority of the Trump White House. If this is a priority, it will require much cooperation between the Treasury Secretary and the FHFA Director.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
11/12/2024NFIB Small Business Optimism9293.791.5—
11/12/2024NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations2.97%—3.00%—
11/12/2024Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices    
11/13/2024MBA Mortgage Applications——-10.80%—
11/13/2024CPI MoM0.20%—0.20%—
11/13/2024CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%—0.30%—
11/13/2024CPI YoY2.60%—2.40%—
11/13/2024CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.30%—3.30%—
11/13/2024CPI Index NSA315.579—315.301—
11/13/2024CPI Core Index SA321.646—320.767—
11/13/2024Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY——1.50%1.40%
11/13/2024Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY——0.90%1.10%
11/13/2024Federal Budget Balance-$225.0b—$64.3b—
11/14/2024PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%—0.00%—
11/14/2024PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%—0.20%—
11/14/2024PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%—0.10%—
11/14/2024PPI Final Demand YoY2.30%—1.80%—
11/14/2024PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.00%—2.80%—
11/14/2024PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY——3.20%—
11/14/2024Initial Jobless Claims222k—221k—
11/14/2024Continuing Claims1869k—1892k—
11/15/2024Empire Manufacturing0—-11.9—
11/15/2024Retail Sales Advance MoM0.30%—0.40%—
11/15/2024Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.30%—0.50%—
11/15/2024Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%—0.70%—
11/15/2024Retail Sales Control Group0.30%—0.70%—
11/15/2024Import Price Index MoM-0.10%—-0.40%—
11/15/2024Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.10%—0.20%—
11/15/2024Import Price Index YoY0.40%—-0.10%—
11/15/2024Export Price Index MoM-0.10%—-0.70%—
11/15/2024Export Price Index YoY——-2.10%—
11/15/2024Industrial Production MoM-0.30%—-0.30%—
11/15/2024Capacity Utilization77.10%—77.50%—
11/15/2024Manufacturing (SIC) Production-0.50%—-0.40%—
11/15/2024Business Inventories0.20%—0.30%—
11/18/2024New York Fed Services Business Activity——-2.2—
11/18/2024NAHB Housing Market Index——43—
11/18/2024Total Net TIC Flows——$79.2b—
11/18/2024Net Long-term TIC Flows——$111.4b—
11/19/2024Housing Starts1340k—1354k—
11/19/2024Building Permits1435k—1428k1425k
11/19/2024Housing Starts MoM-1.00%—-0.50%—
11/19/2024Building Permits MoM0.50%—-2.90%-3.10%

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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