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Author Jason Haley

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The October CPI report was right in line with expectations this morning.

Excluding food and energy prices, the core measure rose 0.3% m/m, and on a year-over-year basis, core CPI rose 3.3%. Treasury yields are 3-8 basis points lower in the initial reaction. This is likely more of a “relief trade” that the readings weren’t above expectations, which has been the general trend over the last couple of months. The MBA mortgage applications index rose 0.5% last week, following a 10.8% decline the week prior. Purchase applications were up 1.9%, while refi apps fell 1.5%. The average 30-year conventional contract rate rose 5 bps last week to 6.86%, up 73 bps since the week ended September 20. Over that same timeframe, the refi applications index has fallen 55%. Five different Fed leaders will be speaking today, including New York Fed President John Williams.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
11/13/2024MBA Mortgage Applications—0.50%-10.80%—
11/13/2024CPI MoM0.20%0.20%0.20%—
11/13/2024CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%0.30%0.30%—
11/13/2024CPI YoY2.60%2.60%2.40%—
11/13/2024CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.30%3.30%3.30%—
11/13/2024CPI Index NSA315.59315.664315.301—
11/13/2024CPI Core Index SA321.614321.666320.767—
11/13/2024Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY—1.40%1.50%1.40%
11/13/2024Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY—1.40%0.90%1.10%
11/13/2024Federal Budget Balance-$232.5b—$64.3b—
11/14/2024PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%—0.00%—
11/14/2024PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%—0.20%—
11/14/2024PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%—0.10%—
11/14/2024PPI Final Demand YoY2.30%—1.80%—
11/14/2024PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.00%—2.80%—
11/14/2024PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY——3.20%—
11/14/2024Initial Jobless Claims220k—221k—
11/14/2024Continuing Claims1869k—1892k—
11/15/2024Empire Manufacturing0—-11.9—
11/15/2024Retail Sales Advance MoM0.30%—0.40%—
11/15/2024Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.30%—0.50%—
11/15/2024Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%—0.70%—
11/15/2024Retail Sales Control Group0.30%—0.70%—
11/15/2024Import Price Index MoM-0.10%—-0.40%—
11/15/2024Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.10%—0.20%—
11/15/2024Import Price Index YoY0.30%—-0.10%—
11/15/2024Export Price Index MoM-0.10%—-0.70%—
11/15/2024Export Price Index YoY-1.70%—-2.10%—
11/15/2024Industrial Production MoM-0.30%—-0.30%—
11/15/2024Capacity Utilization77.10%—77.50%—
11/15/2024Manufacturing (SIC) Production-0.50%—-0.40%—
11/15/2024Business Inventories0.20%—0.30%—
11/18/2024New York Fed Services Business Activity——-2.2—
11/18/2024NAHB Housing Market Index44—43—
11/18/2024Total Net TIC Flows——$79.2b—
11/18/2024Net Long-term TIC Flows——$111.4b—
11/19/2024Housing Starts1340k—1354k—
11/19/2024Building Permits1435k—1428k1425k
11/19/2024Housing Starts MoM-1.00%—-0.50%—
11/19/2024Building Permits MoM0.50%—-2.90%-3.10%
11/20/2024MBA Mortgage Applications——0.50%—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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