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Author Jason Haley

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Geopolitical worries are fueling a risk-off trade in financial markets this morning.

The Ukrainian military carried out its first strikes in Russian territory using U.S.-supplied missiles, and Russian President Putin approved an expanded use of nuclear weapons. The Ukrainian strike was on an ammunition warehouse 71 miles from the border with Ukraine. Treasury yields are currently down 5-8 basis points across the curve, and most European equity markets are 1-2% lower. Housing starts fell 3.1% to a 1.311-million-unit annual pace in October, driven by a 6.9% decline in single-family starts. The slowdown in starts was greater than expected, and the more forward-looking building permits metric was also worse than expected in October, falling 0.6%.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
11/19/2024Housing Starts1334k1311k1354k1353k
11/19/2024Building Permits1435k1416k1428k1425k
11/19/2024Housing Starts MoM-1.50%-3.10%-0.50%-1.90%
11/19/2024Building Permits MoM0.70%-0.60%-2.90%-3.10%
11/20/2024MBA Mortgage Applications——0.50%—
11/21/2024Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook8—10.3—
11/21/2024Initial Jobless Claims220k—217k—
11/21/2024Continuing Claims1880k—1873k—
11/21/2024Leading Index-0.30%—-0.50%—
11/21/2024Existing Home Sales3.95m—3.84m—
11/21/2024Existing Home Sales MoM2.90%—-1.00%—
11/21/2024Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity-5—-4—
11/22/2024Bloomberg Nov. United States Economic Survey    
11/22/2024S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI48.9—48.5—
11/22/2024S&P Global US Services PMI55.1—55—
11/22/2024S&P Global US Composite PMI54.4—54.1—
11/22/2024U. of Mich. Sentiment74—73—
11/22/2024U. of Mich. Current Conditions——64.4—
11/22/2024U. of Mich. Expectations——78.5—
11/22/2024U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation——2.60%—
11/22/2024U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.10%—3.10%—
11/22/2024Kansas City Fed Services Activity——5—
11/25/2024Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index——-0.28—
11/25/2024Dallas Fed Manf. Activity——-3—
11/26/2024Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity——6—
11/26/2024FHFA House Price Index MoM——0.30%—
11/26/2024House Price Purchase Index QoQ——0.90%—
11/26/2024S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA——0.35%—
11/26/2024S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA——5.20%—
11/26/2024S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA——4.25%—
11/26/2024New Home Sales728k—738k—
11/26/2024New Home Sales MoM-1.40%—4.10%—
11/26/2024Conf. Board Consumer Confidence113—108.7—
11/26/2024Conf. Board Present Situation——138—
11/26/2024Conf. Board Expectations——89.1—
11/26/2024Richmond Fed Manufact. Index——-14—
11/26/2024Richmond Fed Business Conditions——-4—
11/26/2024Dallas Fed Services Activity——2—
11/26/2024FOMC Meeting Minutes————

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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