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Author Jason Haley

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Treasury yields are modestly lower to start the day after reports of Russia firing a long-range ballistic missile into Ukraine, according to officials in Kyiv.

Initial jobless claims came in lower than expected last week at 213,000, the lowest weekly reading since April. The 4-week moving average of claims fell to 218,000, the lowest since the week ended May 10. In an interview with the Financial Times, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin suggested that the U.S. economy may be more susceptible to inflation shocks than before due to greater efficiencies in passing along cost increases to consumers. Barkin also suggested that the proposed economic policies from the incoming Trump administration might not be as clear cut as they relate to the ultimate inflation impact, pointing to the potential disinflationary impact of boosting domestic energy production relative to the potential inflationary impact of tariffs and mass deportation.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
11/21/2024Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook8-5.510.3—
11/21/2024Initial Jobless Claims220k213k217k219k
11/21/2024Continuing Claims1880k1908k1873k1872k
11/21/2024Leading Index-0.30%—-0.50%—
11/21/2024Existing Home Sales3.95m—3.84m—
11/21/2024Existing Home Sales MoM2.90%—-1.00%—
11/21/2024Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity-5—-4—
11/22/2024Bloomberg Nov. United States Economic Survey    
11/22/2024S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI48.9—48.5—
11/22/2024S&P Global US Services PMI55—55—
11/22/2024S&P Global US Composite PMI54.3—54.1—
11/22/2024U. of Mich. Sentiment73.9—73—
11/22/2024U. of Mich. Current Conditions——64.4—
11/22/2024U. of Mich. Expectations——78.5—
11/22/2024U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.70%—2.60%—
11/22/2024U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.10%—3.10%—
11/22/2024Kansas City Fed Services Activity——5—
11/25/2024Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index——-0.28—
11/25/2024Dallas Fed Manf. Activity——-3—
11/26/2024Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity——6—
11/26/2024FHFA House Price Index MoM——0.30%—
11/26/2024House Price Purchase Index QoQ——0.90%—
11/26/2024S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA——0.35%—
11/26/2024S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA——5.20%—
11/26/2024S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA——4.25%—
11/26/2024New Home Sales725k—738k—
11/26/2024New Home Sales MoM-1.80%—4.10%—
11/26/2024Conf. Board Consumer Confidence112.5—108.7—
11/26/2024Conf. Board Present Situation——138—
11/26/2024Conf. Board Expectations——89.1—
11/26/2024Richmond Fed Manufact. Index——-14—
11/26/2024Richmond Fed Business Conditions——-4—
11/26/2024Dallas Fed Services Activity——2—
11/26/2024FOMC Meeting Minutes————
11/27/2024MBA Mortgage Applications——1.70%—
11/27/2024GDP Annualized QoQ2.80%—2.80%—
11/27/2024Personal Consumption——3.70%—
11/27/2024GDP Price Index——1.80%—
11/27/2024Core PCE Price Index QoQ——2.20%—
11/27/2024Advance Goods Trade Balance-$99.2b—-$108.2b-$108.7b
11/27/2024Wholesale Inventories MoM——-0.20%—
11/27/2024Retail Inventories MoM——0.80%—
11/27/2024Durable Goods Orders0.40%—-0.70%—
11/27/2024Durables Ex Transportation0.20%—0.50%—
11/27/2024Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air——0.70%—
11/27/2024Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air——-0.10%—
11/27/2024Initial Jobless Claims——213k—
11/27/2024Continuing Claims——1908k—
11/27/2024Personal Income0.30%—0.30%—
11/27/2024Personal Spending0.40%—0.50%—
11/27/2024Real Personal Spending——0.40%—
11/27/2024PCE Price Index MoM0.20%—0.20%—
11/27/2024PCE Price Index YoY2.30%—2.10%—
11/27/2024Core PCE Price Index MoM0.30%—0.30%—
11/27/2024Core PCE Price Index YoY2.80%—2.70%—
11/27/2024Pending Home Sales MoM——7.40%—
11/27/2024Pending Home Sales NSA YoY——2.20%—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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