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Author Michael Oravetz

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Estimated

Risk assets are fluctuating into the Tuesday trading period, as S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures have edged lower this morning.

Delayed due to the government shutdown, September retail sales rose modestly (+0.2% m/m) and PPI – excluding the usually volatile food and energy sectors – jumped as well (+0.1% m/m). The recent data blackout has created an unwelcomed dynamic for most market participants, with Fed Funds futures pricing varying on whether US central bankers will cut rates in the final FOMC session of the year. On the horizon later today is fresh pending home sales data and tomorrow will bring further insight into the US labor market, as initial and continuing jobless claims will be released.

Michael Oravetz
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
11/25/2025List of US Economic Indicators Delayed by Government Shutdown   
11/25/2025ADP Weekly Employment Preliminary Estimate   
11/25/2025Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity     —-16.3-22.2
11/25/2025Retail Sales Advance MoM0.40%0.20%0.60%
11/25/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.30%0.30%0.70%
11/25/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%0.10%0.70%
11/25/2025Retail Sales Control Group0.30%-0.10%0.70%
11/25/2025PPI Final Demand MoM0.30%0.30%-0.10%
11/25/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.10%-0.10%
11/25/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.30%0.10%0.30%
11/25/2025PPI Final Demand YoY2.60%2.70%2.60%
11/25/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.70%2.60%2.80%
11/25/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.90%2.90%2.80%
11/25/2025FHFA House Price Index MoM0.20%0.00%0.40%
11/25/2025House Price Purchase Index QoQ     —0.20%0.00%
11/25/2025S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA0.10%0.13%0.19%
11/25/2025S&P Cotality CS 20-City YoY NSA1.40%1.36%1.58%
11/25/2025S&P Cotality CS US HPI YoY NSA     —1.29%1.51%
11/25/2025Business Inventories0.00%     —0.20%
11/25/2025Richmond Fed Manufact. Index-5     —-4
11/25/2025Richmond Fed Business Conditions     —     —-1
11/25/2025Conf. Board Consumer Confidence93.3     —94.6
11/25/2025Conf. Board Present Situation     —     —129.3
11/25/2025Conf. Board Expectations     —     —71.5
11/25/2025Pending Home Sales MoM0.20%     —0.00%
11/25/2025Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-1.20%     —1.50%
11/25/2025Dallas Fed Services Activity     —     —-9.4
11/25/2025-11/26/2025Federal Budget Balance-$230.0b     —-$257.4b
11/26/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-5.20%
11/26/2025Initial Jobless Claims225k     —220k
11/26/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —224.25k
11/26/2025Continuing Claims1964k     —1974k
11/26/2025Durable Goods Orders0.50%     —2.90%
11/26/2025Durables Ex Transportation0.20%     —0.30%
11/26/2025Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.20%     —-0.40%
11/26/2025Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.20%     —0.40%
11/26/2025MNI Chicago PMI43.8     —43.8
11/26/2025Fed Releases Beige Book   
11/26/2025-12/24/2025Leading Index     —     —     —
12/1/2025S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI     —     —51.9
12/1/2025ISM Manufacturing49.2     —48.7
12/1/2025ISM Prices Paid     —     —58
12/1/2025ISM New Orders     —     —49.4
12/1/2025ISM Employment     —     —46
12/01/2025-12/19/2025Housing Starts1329k     —1307k
12/01/2025-12/19/2025Advance Goods Trade Balance     —     —-$85.5b
12/01/2025-12/19/2025Advance Goods Exports MoM SA     —     —-1.30%
12/01/2025-12/19/2025Advance Goods Imports MoM SA     —     —-7.00%
12/01/2025-12/19/2025Building Permits1347k     —1330k
12/01/2025-12/19/2025Housing Starts MoM1.70%     —     —
12/01/2025-12/19/2025Building Permits MoM1.30%     —     —
12/01/2025-12/19/2025Construction Spending MoM     —     —0.20%
12/01/2025-12/19/2025Wholesale Inventories MoM     —     —0.00%
12/01/2025-12/19/2025Retail Inventories MoM     —     —     —
12/01/2025-12/19/2025Wholesale Trade Sales MoM     —     —0.10%
12/01/2025-12/19/2025Factory Orders     —     —1.40%
12/01/2025-12/19/2025New Home Sales735k     —     —
12/01/2025-12/19/2025New Home Sales MoM-8.10%     —     —
12/2/2025Wards Total Vehicle Sales15.50m     —15.32m
Michael Oravetz

Michael Oravetz

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