Site Search

Looking for something? Use the search bar below or visit our Resources page.


Author Conrad Lofton

Published

Estimated

Rates are roughly 2 basis points higher across much of the curve and both S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are up going into the last full trading day of the week.

This is likely a result of the US jobless claims data coming to the lowest level (216k) since mid-April. This was 9k lower than the forecast anticipated at 225k. With that said, news regarding HPs plans to cut ~6,000 jobs by 2028 due to increased use of AI dropped overnight. As a result, shares were down roughly 3% in pre-market trading.

Conrad Lofton
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
11/26/2025List of US Economic Indicators Delayed by Government Shutdown    
11/26/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —0.20%-5.20%     —
11/26/2025Initial Jobless Claims225k216k220k222k
11/26/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —223.75k224.25k224.75k
11/26/2025Continuing Claims1963k1960k1974k1953k
11/26/2025Durable Goods Orders0.50%0.50%2.90%3.00%
11/26/2025Durables Ex Transportation0.20%0.60%0.30%0.50%
11/26/2025Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.30%0.90%0.40%0.90%
11/26/2025Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.20%0.90%-0.40%-0.10%
11/26/2025MNI Chicago PMI43.6     —43.8     —
11/26/2025Fed Releases Beige Book    
11/26/2025-12/24/2025Leading Index-0.30%     —     —     —
12/1/2025S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI     —     —51.9     —
12/1/2025ISM Manufacturing49.3     —48.7     —
12/1/2025ISM Prices Paid     —     —58     —
12/1/2025ISM New Orders     —     —49.4     —
12/1/2025ISM Employment     —     —46     —
12/01/2025-12/12/2025Housing Starts1329k     —1307k     —
12/01/2025-12/19/2025Retail Inventories MoM     —     —0.00%-0.10%
12/01/2025-12/19/2025Advance Goods Trade Balance     —     —-$85.5b-$84.3b
12/01/2025-12/19/2025Advance Goods Imports MoM SA     —     —-7.00%-6.60%
12/01/2025-12/12/2025Building Permits1347k     —1330k     —
12/01/2025-12/12/2025Housing Starts MoM1.70%     —     —     —
12/01/2025-12/12/2025Building Permits MoM1.30%     —     —     —
12/01/2025-12/12/2025Construction Spending MoM     —     —0.20%     —
12/01/2025-12/19/2025Wholesale Inventories MoM     —     —0.00%     —
12/01/2025-12/19/2025Wholesale Trade Sales MoM     —     —0.10%     —
12/01/2025-12/19/2025Factory Orders     —     —1.40%     —
12/01/2025-12/19/2025New Home Sales735k     —     —     —
12/01/2025-12/19/2025New Home Sales MoM-8.10%     —     —     —
12/2/2025Wards Total Vehicle Sales15.45m     —15.32m     —
12/3/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —0.20%     —
12/3/2025ADP Employment Change     —     —42k     —
12/3/2025Import Price Index MoM0.10%     —0.30%     —
12/3/2025Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.10%     —0.20%     —
12/3/2025Import Price Index YoY0.40%     —0.00%     —
12/3/2025Export Price Index MoM-0.10%     —0.30%     —
12/3/2025Export Price Index YoY     —     —     —     —
12/3/2025Capacity Utilization77.30%     —77.40%75.80%
12/3/2025Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.10%     —0.20%0.10%
12/3/2025Industrial Production MoM0.00%     —0.10%-0.10%
12/3/2025S&P Global US Services PMI     —     —55     —
12/3/2025S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —54.8     —
12/3/2025ISM Services Index52.2     —52.4     —
12/3/2025ISM Services Prices Paid     —     —70     —
12/3/2025ISM Services New Orders     —     —56.2     —
12/3/2025ISM Services Employment     —     —48.2     —

Conrad Lofton

Director, Investment Management Group

LinkedIn

  Headline Disclaimer

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.

Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.

Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.



Recent Beyond The Headlines


  Headlines RSS
Strategic Partners

Let’s Work Together

ALM First is your agile partner with a trusted history of delivering results.