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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields are 5-10 bps lower to start the week with the long end moving the most (curve flatter).

Japan is closed for holiday today, and trading activity is relatively low according to street color, which exacerbates directional moves. This week should be noisy. In addition to election day tomorrow, we have a FOMC meeting on Thursday. Fed fund futures remain priced for a 25-basis point cut this week, but it wouldn’t be a major surprise if Fed chose to pause this week given the data released since the September meeting. Regarding the election, there is a high likelihood that we won’t know which party will control the White House and both houses of Congress tomorrow night. Clean sweeps are expected to lead to larger fiscal deficits and, therefore, a greater impact on benchmark yields, while divided government is expected to lead to a more muted market response.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
11/4/2024Factory Orders-0.50%—-0.20%—
11/4/2024Factory Orders Ex Trans——-0.10%—
11/4/2024Durable Goods Orders-0.80%—-0.80%—
11/4/2024Durables Ex Transportation0.40%—0.40%—
11/4/2024Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air——0.50%—
11/4/2024Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air——-0.30%—
11/5/2024Trade Balance-$84.1b—-$70.4b—
11/5/2024ISM Services Index53.8—54.9—
11/5/2024ISM Services Prices Paid——59.4—
11/5/2024ISM Services Employment——48.1—
11/5/2024ISM Services New Orders——59.4—
11/6/2024MBA Mortgage Applications——-0.10%—
11/6/2024S&P Global US Services PMI55.3—55.3—
11/6/2024S&P Global US Composite PMI——54.3—
11/7/2024Nonfarm Productivity2.50%—2.50%—
11/7/2024Unit Labor Costs1.00%—0.40%—
11/7/2024Initial Jobless Claims222k—216k—
11/7/2024Continuing Claims1870k—1862k—
11/7/2024Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.10%—-0.10%—
11/7/2024Wholesale Inventories MoM-0.10%—-0.10%—
11/7/2024FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)4.75%—5.00%—
11/7/2024FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)4.50%—4.75%—
11/7/2024Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate4.65%—4.90%—
11/7/2024Consumer Credit$12.200b—$8.929b—
11/8/2024U. of Mich. Sentiment71—70.5—
11/8/2024U. of Mich. Current Conditions66—64.9—
11/8/2024U. of Mich. Expectations75—74.1—
11/8/2024U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.70%—2.70%—
11/8/2024U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.00%—3.00%—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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