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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields are drifting 2-3 days higher this morning, perhaps building a modest concession into today’s 10-year note auction.

Global equity markets were generally higher overnight, particularly in Asia, and S&P 500 futures are up 21 basis points about 30 minutes ahead of the open. It’s election day in the U.S., although there’s a good chance we won’t know the results of the presidential and congressional races after the evening. Later this morning, ISM Services data for October will be released, which is expected to show modest declines in activity, prices paid, and employment metrics.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
11/5/2024Trade Balance-$84.0b-$84.4b-$70.4b-$70.8b
11/5/2024S&P Global US Composite PMI54.3—54.3—
11/5/2024S&P Global US Services PMI55.3—55.3—
11/5/2024ISM Services Index53.8—54.9—
11/5/2024ISM Services Prices Paid58—59.4—
11/5/2024ISM Services Employment48—48.1—
11/5/2024ISM Services New Orders58—59.4—
11/6/2024MBA Mortgage Applications——-0.10%—
11/7/2024Nonfarm Productivity2.50%—2.50%—
11/7/2024Unit Labor Costs1.00%—0.40%—
11/7/2024Initial Jobless Claims223k—216k—
11/7/2024Continuing Claims1870k—1862k—
11/7/2024Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.10%—-0.10%—
11/7/2024Wholesale Inventories MoM-0.10%—-0.10%—
11/7/2024FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)4.75%—5.00%—
11/7/2024FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)4.50%—4.75%—
11/7/2024Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate4.65%—4.90%—
11/7/2024Consumer Credit$12.100b—$8.929b—
11/8/2024U. of Mich. Sentiment71—70.5—
11/8/2024U. of Mich. Current Conditions65.5—64.9—
11/8/2024U. of Mich. Expectations75—74.1—
11/8/2024U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.70%—2.70%—
11/8/2024U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.00%—3.00%—
11/12/2024NFIB Small Business Optimism92—91.5—
11/12/2024NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations——3.00%—
11/12/2024Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices    

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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