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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields are sharply higher and steeper in the initial reaction to Republican victories overnight in the races for the White House and Senate (House results still TBD but appears leaning toward narrow Republican majority).

The 30-year bond yield rose as much as 24 basis points (bps) overnight (currently +20 bps), the biggest daily increase since March 2020. The 2-year note yield is currently up 9 bps. The selloff in bonds hasn’t spoiled over into stocks, with S&P 500 futures up more than 2% an hour ahead of the open. As the picture with the House becomes more clear, markets will continue to evaluate and price perceived implications for Treasury supply (fiscal deficit), inflation outlook (tariffs), and regulatory matters. Later today, the long-end of the curve will be tested with the $25 billion 30-year bond auction. The November FOMC decision will be released tomorrow afternoon.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
11/6/2024MBA Mortgage Applications—-10.80%-0.10%—
11/7/2024Nonfarm Productivity2.50%—2.50%—
11/7/2024Unit Labor Costs1.00%—0.40%—
11/7/2024Initial Jobless Claims223k—216k—
11/7/2024Continuing Claims1870k—1862k—
11/7/2024Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.10%—-0.10%—
11/7/2024Wholesale Inventories MoM-0.10%—-0.10%—
11/7/2024FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)4.75%—5.00%—
11/7/2024FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)4.50%—4.75%—
11/7/2024Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate4.65%—4.90%—
11/7/2024Consumer Credit$12.100b—$8.929b—
11/8/2024U. of Mich. Sentiment71—70.5—
11/8/2024U. of Mich. Current Conditions65.5—64.9—
11/8/2024U. of Mich. Expectations75—74.1—
11/8/2024U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.70%—2.70%—
11/8/2024U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.00%—3.00%—
11/12/2024NFIB Small Business Optimism92—91.5—
11/12/2024NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations——3.00%—
11/12/2024Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices    
11/13/2024MBA Mortgage Applications——-10.80%—
11/13/2024Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY——1.50%1.40%
11/13/2024Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY——0.90%1.10%
11/13/2024CPI MoM0.20%—0.20%—
11/13/2024CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%—0.30%—
11/13/2024CPI YoY2.60%—2.40%—
11/13/2024CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.30%—3.30%—
11/13/2024CPI Index NSA——315.301—
11/13/2024CPI Core Index SA——320.767—
11/13/2024Monthly Budget Statement——$64.3b—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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