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Author Jason Haley

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Estimated

Treasury yields are unchanged to slightly lower following yesterday’s severe selloff.

It was indeed a tale of two markets. Stocks surged higher on the election results, with the Dow closing 3.57% higher, but Treasuries went the other direction, which was not unexpected given how the market had been pricing for a “Red sweep” in the weeks leading up to the election. Attention now shifts to today’s FOMC meeting. The Fed is expected to move forward with a 25 basis point cut today, but it would not be surprising if they paused at this meeting or hinted at a pause at the December meeting, given the recent strength in the economic data since the last meeting in September. Powell will undoubtedly be questioned about the impact of the election results on the economy and Fed policy, which he will likely dance around and reiterate Fed independence from political matters. Lastly, initial jobless claims were essentially as expected last week, coming in at 221,000.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
11/7/2024Nonfarm Productivity2.50%2.20%2.50%2.10%
11/7/2024Unit Labor Costs1.00%1.90%0.40%2.40%
11/7/2024Initial Jobless Claims222k221k216k218k
11/7/2024Continuing Claims1873k1892k1862k1853k
11/7/2024Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.10%—-0.10%—
11/7/2024Wholesale Inventories MoM-0.10%—-0.10%—
11/7/2024FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)4.75%—5.00%—
11/7/2024FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)4.50%—4.75%—
11/7/2024Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate4.65%—4.90%—
11/7/2024Consumer Credit$12.173b—$8.929b—
11/8/2024U. of Mich. Sentiment71—70.5—
11/8/2024U. of Mich. Current Conditions65.5—64.9—
11/8/2024U. of Mich. Expectations75—74.1—
11/8/2024U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.70%—2.70%—
11/8/2024U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.00%—3.00%—
11/12/2024NFIB Small Business Optimism91.8—91.5—
11/12/2024NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations——3.00%—
11/12/2024Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices    
11/13/2024MBA Mortgage Applications——-10.80%—
11/13/2024Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY——1.50%1.40%
11/13/2024Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY——0.90%1.10%
11/13/2024CPI MoM0.20%—0.20%—
11/13/2024CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%—0.30%—
11/13/2024CPI YoY2.60%—2.40%—
11/13/2024CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.30%—3.30%—
11/13/2024CPI Index NSA——315.301—
11/13/2024CPI Core Index SA——320.767—
11/13/2024Monthly Budget Statement——$64.3b—
11/14/2024PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%—0.00%—
11/14/2024PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%—0.20%—
11/14/2024PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM——0.10%—
11/14/2024PPI Final Demand YoY——1.80%—
11/14/2024PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY——2.80%—
11/14/2024PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY——3.20%—
11/14/2024Initial Jobless Claims——221k—
11/14/2024Continuing Claims——1892k—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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