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Author Jason Haley

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Treasury yields are 1-5 basis points lower this morning as markets react to multiple economic and geopolitical headlines.

Dockworkers from Maine to Texas began a coordinated strike overnight that risks supply chain disruptions and inflation pressures if not resolved quickly. The strike affects 36 ports in the Atlantic and Gulf regions and is the first such strike since 1977. In Europe, September inflation readings fell, as expected, and PMI data was generally softer. Later this morning, the August JOLTS report will be released, providing an updated look at job openings and layoffs in the U.S. labor market. Yesterday, Fed Chair Powell suggested a more gradual pace of rate cuts in the future just hours after Raphael Bostic (Atlanta Fed) said he was open to another outsized cut at the November meeting should the upcoming jobs reports underperform expectations. “This is not a committee that feels like it’s in a hurry to cut rates quickly,” said Powell.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
10/1/2024S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI47—47—
10/1/2024Construction Spending MoM0.20%—-0.30%—
10/1/2024JOLTS Job Openings7693k—7673k—
10/1/2024ISM Manufacturing47.5—47.2—
10/1/2024ISM Prices Paid53.5—54—
10/1/2024ISM New Orders45—44.6—
10/1/2024ISM Employment47.1—46—
10/1/2024Dallas Fed Services Activity——-7.7—
10/1/2024Wards Total Vehicle Sales15.68m—15.13m—
10/2/2024MBA Mortgage Applications——11.00%—
10/2/2024ADP Employment Change125k—99k—
10/3/2024Challenger Job Cuts YoY——1.00%—
10/3/2024Initial Jobless Claims221k—218k—
10/3/2024Continuing Claims1830k—1834k—
10/3/2024S&P Global US Services PMI55.4—55.4—
10/3/2024S&P Global US Composite PMI54.1—54.4—
10/3/2024Factory Orders0.00%—5.00%—
10/3/2024Factory Orders Ex Trans——0.40%—
10/3/2024Durable Goods Orders0.00%—0.00%—
10/3/2024Durables Ex Transportation0.50%—0.50%—
10/3/2024Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air——0.20%—
10/3/2024Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air——0.10%—
10/3/2024ISM Services Index51.7—51.5—
10/3/2024ISM Services Prices Paid56.5—57.3—
10/3/2024ISM Services Employment——50.2—
10/3/2024ISM Services New Orders——53—
10/4/2024Change in Nonfarm Payrolls150k—142k—
10/4/2024Two-Month Payroll Net Revision——-86k—
10/4/2024Change in Private Payrolls125k—118k—
10/4/2024Change in Manufact. Payrolls-8k—-24k—
10/4/2024Unemployment Rate4.20%—4.20%—
10/4/2024Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%—0.40%—
10/4/2024Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.80%—3.80%—
10/4/2024Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.3—34.3—
10/4/2024Labor Force Participation Rate62.70%—62.70%—
10/4/2024Underemployment Rate——7.90%—
10/7/2024Consumer Credit$12.700b—$25.452b—
10/7/2024Monthly Budget Statement——-$380.1b-$380.1b
10/8/2024NFIB Small Business Optimism——91.2—
10/8/2024Trade Balance-$73.3b—-$78.8b—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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