Site Search

Looking for something? Use the search bar below or visit our Resources page.


Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Trading flows were somewhat muted overnight despite the initiation of the federal government shutdown as the start of the golden week holiday began in China/Hong Kong.

Treasury yields 3-7 basis points lower so far this morning with front-end yields experiencing the bigger move. The shutdown began after midnight, and while government offices may continue what is considered essential work, all tasks deemed nonessential are halted. Many government workers are furloughed until a new funding package is passed by Congress. Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid payments continue to be distributed, but paychecks for government employees are also halted amid the shutdown (backpay can be paid after shutdown ends).

The September ADP private sector employment report will be released later this morning, as will the ISM manufacturing report for September. Two regional Fed bank presidents (Barkin & Goolsbee) will speak later today. Late yesterday, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, a FOMC voter in 2026, suggest that the Fed should be cautious with additional rate cuts amid “persistent inflation, resilient demand, and modest labor market slack.”

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
10/1/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —-12.70%0.60%
10/1/2025ADP Employment Change51k-32k54k
10/1/2025S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI52     —52
10/1/2025ISM Manufacturing49     —48.7
10/1/2025ISM Prices Paid62.7     —63.7
10/1/2025ISM New Orders50     —51.4
10/1/2025ISM Employment44.3     —43.8
10/1/2025Construction Spending MoM-0.10%     —-0.10%
10/1/2025Wards Total Vehicle Sales16.20m     —16.07m
10/2/2025Challenger Job Cuts YoY     —     —13.30%
10/2/2025Initial Jobless Claims225k     —218k
10/2/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —237.50k
10/2/2025Continuing Claims1932k     —1926k
10/2/2025Factory Orders1.40%     —-1.30%
10/2/2025Factory Orders Ex Trans0.30%     —0.60%
10/2/2025Durable Goods Orders2.90%     —2.90%
10/2/2025Durables Ex Transportation0.40%     —0.40%
10/2/2025Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.60%
10/2/2025Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —-0.30%
10/3/2025Change in Nonfarm Payrolls52k     —22k
10/3/2025Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —     —-21k
10/3/2025Change in Private Payrolls65k     —38k
10/3/2025Change in Manufact. Payrolls-8k     —-12k
10/3/2025Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —     —29k
10/3/2025Unemployment Rate4.30%     —4.30%
10/3/2025Labor Force Participation Rate62.30%     —62.30%
10/3/2025Underemployment Rate     —     —8.10%
10/3/2025Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%     —0.30%
10/3/2025Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.70%     —3.70%
10/3/2025Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.2     —34.2
10/3/2025S&P Global US Services PMI53.9     —53.9
10/3/2025S&P Global US Composite PMI53.6     —53.6
10/3/2025ISM Services Index51.7     —52
10/3/2025ISM Services Prices Paid68     —69.2
10/3/2025ISM Services New Orders54     —56
10/3/2025ISM Services Employment46.8     —46.5
10/7/2025Trade Balance-$61.4b     —-$78.3b
10/7/2025Exports MoM     —     —0.30%
10/7/2025Imports MoM     —     —5.90%
10/7/2025NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations     —     —3.20%
10/7/2025Consumer Credit$15.000b     —$16.010b
10/8/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-12.70%
10/8/2025FOMC Meeting Minutes     —     —     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

  Headline Disclaimer

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.

Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.

Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.



Recent Beyond The Headlines


  Headlines RSS
Strategic Partners

Let’s Work Together

ALM First is your agile partner with a trusted history of delivering results.