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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

The price action in Treasuries has been choppy on the first trading session of the fourth quarter, with prices moving back and forth between positive and negative territory across the curve.

Long-end yields initially followed oil prices higher early this morning, with the 10-year yield hitting the highest level since April 2002 (5.34%) but has since come down to 5.29% (flat versus yesterday). The labor market continues to show no signs of stress, with initial jobless claims holding steady last week at 197,000. The number of Americans continuing to file unemployment claims fell to 1.7 million, the lowest since March 2023. The September payrolls and unemployment reports will be released tomorrow morning. Stronger than expected results would be expected to add to the upward pressure on bond yields.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
10/1/2026Challenger Job Cuts YoY-20.00%-19.90%-38.50%     —
10/1/2026Challenger Job Cuts Total     —4328152881     —
10/1/2026Initial Jobless Claims200k197k197k198k
10/1/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —200.00k202.25k202.50k
10/1/2026Continuing Claims1725k1701k1719k1712k
10/1/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI57     —57     —
10/1/2026ISM Manufacturing55     —54.6     —
10/1/2026ISM Prices Paid73     —71.1     —
10/1/2026ISM New Orders54.7     —53.7     —
10/1/2026ISM Employment52     —51.2     —
10/1/2026Construction Spending MoM0.00%     —-0.50%     —
10/01/2026Omdia Total Vehicle Sales16.30m     —16.76m     —
10/2/2026Change in Nonfarm Payrolls85k     —162k     —
10/2/2026Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —     —55k     —
10/2/2026Change in Private Payrolls80k     —127k     —
10/2/2026Change in Manufact. Payrolls10k     —16k     —
10/2/2026Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —     —71k     —
10/2/2026Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%     —0.30%     —
10/2/2026Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.10%     —3.10%     —
10/2/2026Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.3     —34.4     —
10/2/2026Unemployment Rate4.10%     —4.10%     —
10/2/2026Labor Force Participation Rate61.60%     —61.60%     —
10/2/2026Underemployment Rate7.70%     —7.70%     —
10/2/2026Factory Orders0.10%     —0.90%     —
10/2/2026Factory Orders Ex Trans0.60%     —0.60%     —
10/2/2026Durable Goods Orders0.00%     —0.00%     —
10/2/2026Durables Ex Transportation0.30%     —0.30%     —
10/2/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —1.60%     —
10/2/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.60%     —
10/5/2026S&P Global US Services PMI     —     —58.7     —
10/5/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —58.4     —
10/5/2026ISM Services Index55     —55.4     —
10/5/2026ISM Services Prices Paid73     —72.6     —
10/5/2026ISM Services New Orders60.5     —60.9     —
10/5/2026ISM Services Employment49     —47.8     —
10/6/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —20.000k     —
10/6/2026Trade Balance-$83.8b     —-$88.6b     —
10/6/2026Imports MoM     —     —2.80%     —
10/6/2026Exports MoM     —     —-2.10%     —
10/7/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-6.00%     —
10/7/2026NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations3.64%     —3.58%     —
10/7/2026FOMC Meeting Minutes     —     —     —     —
10/7/2026Consumer Credit$15.000b     —$18.062b     —
10/8/2026Initial Jobless Claims     —     —197k     —
10/8/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —200.00k     —
10/8/2026Continuing Claims     —     —1701k     —
10/8/2026Wholesale Trade Sales MoM     —     —0.80%     —
10/8/2026Wholesale Inventories MoM     —     —0.70%     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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