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Author Jason Haley

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U.S. equities rebounded yesterday following Friday’s U.S./China trade war escalation, but Treasury yields are opening 1-3 basis points lower this morning following the holiday.

Late last week, the White House retaliated against China’s decision to impose export curbs on rare earth minerals by announcing fresh 100% tariffs on Chinese goods. In the next tit-for-tat iteration, China has sanctioned the U.S. units of a South Korean shipping giant (Hanwha), as well as announcing new port fees on all U.S.-owned or built ships in Chinese ports.

Today’s notable event will be Fed Chair Powell’s economic outlook at the annual NABE conference. With the market fully priced for a 25-basis point cut at the October 29 FOMC meeting, markets are looking to see if Powell attempts to push back on that perception and give the central bank more optionality heading into the meeting. Today marks the second full week of the federal government shutdown, which has made the Fed’s job more difficult in assessing labor market and inflation trends. The BLS did announce that September CPI data will be released on October 24 because it is necessary to calculate the annual cost of living adjustment for Social Security disbursements, but jobs data will still be unavailable until the shutdown ends.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
10/14/2025List of US Economic Indicators Delayed by Government Shutdown   
10/14/2025NFIB Small Business Optimism100.698.8100.8
10/15/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-4.70%
10/15/2025Sept. CPI to be Released Oct. 24   
10/15/2025Empire Manufacturing-1.8     —-8.7
10/15/2025Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —     —0.70%
10/15/2025Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —     —0.40%
10/15/2025Fed Releases Beige Book   
10/16/2025Retail Sales Advance MoM0.40%     —0.60%
10/16/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.30%     —0.70%
10/16/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%     —0.70%
10/16/2025Retail Sales Control Group0.30%     —0.70%
10/16/2025PPI Final Demand MoM0.30%     —-0.10%
10/16/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%     —-0.10%
10/16/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.30%     —0.30%
10/16/2025PPI Final Demand YoY2.70%     —2.60%
10/16/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.70%     —2.80%
10/16/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY     —     —2.80%
10/16/2025Initial Jobless Claims230k     —     —
10/16/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —     —
10/16/2025Continuing Claims1925k     —1926k
10/16/2025Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook10     —23.2
10/16/2025New York Fed Services Business Activity     —     —-19.4
10/16/2025Business Inventories0.10%     —0.20%
10/16/2025NAHB Housing Market Index33     —32
10/17/2025Housing Starts1320k     —1307k
10/17/2025Building Permits1342k     —1330k
10/17/2025Housing Starts MoM1.00%     —-8.50%
10/17/2025Building Permits MoM0.90%     —-2.30%
10/17/2025Import Price Index MoM0.10%     —0.30%
10/17/2025Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.20%     —0.20%
10/17/2025Import Price Index YoY0.30%     —0.00%
10/17/2025Export Price Index MoM0.00%     —0.30%
10/17/2025Export Price Index YoY     —     —3.40%
10/17/2025Industrial Production Report Delayed by Government Shutdown   
10/17/2025Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —$49.2b
10/17/2025Total Net TIC Flows     —     —$2.1b
10/20/2025Leading Index     —     —-0.50%
10/21/2025Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity     —     —-12.3

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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