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Author Jason Haley

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Softness in Chinese equity markets overnight, and lower oil prices are contributing to a 2-7 basis point decline in Treasury yields this morning, with long-end yields exhibiting the bigger move. 

Fed Governor Christopher Waller called for “more caution” in cutting rates going forward during a speech yesterday. “Whatever happens in the near term, my baseline still calls for reducing the policy rate gradually over the next year,” said Waller. This week’s economic calendar is headlined by weekly jobless claims and September retail sales, both released on Thursday.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
10/15/2024Empire Manufacturing3.6-11.911.5—
10/15/2024NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations——3.00%—
10/15/2024Monthly Budget Statement$37.5b—-$380.1b—
10/16/2024MBA Mortgage Applications——-5.10%—
10/16/2024New York Fed Services Business Activity——0.5—
10/16/2024Import Price Index MoM-0.30%—-0.30%—
10/16/2024Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.10%—-0.10%—
10/16/2024Import Price Index YoY0.00%—0.80%—
10/16/2024Export Price Index MoM-0.40%—-0.70%—
10/16/2024Export Price Index YoY——-0.70%—
10/17/2024Retail Sales Advance MoM0.30%—0.10%—
10/17/2024Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.20%—0.10%—
10/17/2024Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%—0.20%—
10/17/2024Retail Sales Control Group0.30%—0.30%—
10/17/2024Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook3—1.7—
10/17/2024Initial Jobless Claims258k—258k—
10/17/2024Continuing Claims1865k—1861k—
10/17/2024Industrial Production MoM-0.10%—0.80%—
10/17/2024Capacity Utilization77.80%—78.00%—
10/17/2024Manufacturing (SIC) Production-0.10%—0.90%—
10/17/2024Business Inventories0.30%—0.40%—
10/17/2024NAHB Housing Market Index42—41—
10/17/2024Total Net TIC Flows——$156.5b—
10/17/2024Net Long-term TIC Flows——$135.4b—
10/18/2024Housing Starts1350k—1356k—
10/18/2024Building Permits1460k—1475k1470k
10/18/2024Housing Starts MoM-0.40%—9.60%—
10/18/2024Building Permits MoM-0.70%—4.90%4.60%
10/21/2024Leading Index-0.30%—-0.20%—
10/22/2024Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity——-6.1—
10/22/2024Richmond Fed Manufact. Index——-21—
10/22/2024Richmond Fed Business Conditions——-3—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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