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Author Conrad Lofton

Published

Estimated

Rates are essentially unchanged across much of the curve this morning with the longest end of the curve down 1 basis point.

The trade war between the United States and China has continued to escalate this morning as President Trump has threatened to terminate all business with China as it relates to cooking oil. The most recent threat follows China’s refusal to buy U.S. soybeans. Previously, China has been the largest buyer of U.S. soybeans; however, has not made a purchase in months.

Fed Chair Powell speech at the annual NABE conference yesterday left the central bank on track to lower interest rates at the FOMC meeting later this month. Additionally, Powell hinted at the central bank approaching an end to the almost 3-year campaign of passively reducing its balance sheet.

Conrad Lofton
Director

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
10/15/2025List of US Economic Indicators Delayed by Government Shutdown   
10/15/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —-1.80%-4.70%
10/15/2025Sept. CPI to be Released Oct. 24   
10/15/2025Real Earnings Release Delayed by Government Shutdown   
10/15/2025Empire Manufacturing-1.810.7-8.7
10/15/2025Fed Releases Beige Book   
10/16/2025Retail Sales Advance MoM0.40%     —0.60%
10/16/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.30%     —0.70%
10/16/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%     —0.70%
10/16/2025Retail Sales Control Group0.30%     —0.70%
10/16/2025PPI Final Demand MoM0.30%     —-0.10%
10/16/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%     —-0.10%
10/16/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.30%     —0.30%
10/16/2025PPI Final Demand YoY2.60%     —2.60%
10/16/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.70%     —2.80%
10/16/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY     —     —2.80%
10/16/2025Initial Jobless Claims230k     —     —
10/16/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —     —
10/16/2025Continuing Claims1925k     —1926k
10/16/2025Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook10     —23.2
10/16/2025New York Fed Services Business Activity     —     —-19.4
10/16/2025Business Inventories0.00%     —0.20%
10/16/2025NAHB Housing Market Index33     —32
10/17/2025Housing Starts1320k     —1307k
10/17/2025Building Permits1343k     —1330k
10/17/2025Housing Starts MoM1.00%     —-8.50%
10/17/2025Building Permits MoM1.00%     —-2.30%
10/17/2025Import Price Index MoM0.10%     —0.30%
10/17/2025Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.20%     —0.20%
10/17/2025Import Price Index YoY0.30%     —0.00%
10/17/2025Export Price Index MoM0.00%     —0.30%
10/17/2025Export Price Index YoY     —     —3.40%
10/17/2025Industrial Production Report Delayed by Government Shutdown   
10/17/2025Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —$49.2b
10/17/2025Total Net TIC Flows     —     —$2.1b
10/20/2025Leading Index     —     —-0.50%
10/21/2025Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity     —     —-12.3
10/22/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-1.80%

Conrad Lofton

Director, Investment Management Group

LinkedIn

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