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Author Conrad Lofton

Published

Estimated

The Treasury curve is flatter this morning with the front end down ~1 basis point and the long end down ~2 basis points.

With the trade war between the United States and China heating up, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent floated the idea of a longer-term truce with China if they lift their plans for more strict export controls of rare-earth elements. U.S. equities extended gains after these comments yesterday afternoon.

The release of the September Beige Book noted an uptick in “Tariff-induced input cost increases” being reported across “many Districts”. Markets were rather unaffected by this news as it was also reported that economic activity as a whole was little changed.

Conrad Lofton
Director

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
10/16/2025List of US Economic Indicators Delayed by Government Shutdown   
10/16/2025Retail Trade Report Delayed by Government Shutdown   
10/16/2025PPI Report Delayed by Government Shutdown   
10/16/2025Jobless Claims Report Delayed by Government Shutdown   
10/16/2025Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook10-12.823.2
10/16/2025New York Fed Services Business Activity     —-23.6-19.4
10/16/2025Inventories Report Delayed by Government Shutdown   
10/16/2025NAHB Housing Market Index33     —32
10/17/2025Housing Starts1320k     —1307k
10/17/2025Building Permits1343k     —1330k
10/17/2025Housing Starts MoM1.00%     —-8.50%
10/17/2025Building Permits MoM0.90%     —-2.30%
10/17/2025Import Price Index MoM0.10%     —0.30%
10/17/2025Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.20%     —0.20%
10/17/2025Import Price Index YoY0.30%     —0.00%
10/17/2025Export Price Index MoM0.00%     —0.30%
10/17/2025Export Price Index YoY     —     —3.40%
10/17/2025Industrial Production Report Delayed by Government Shutdown   
10/17/2025Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —$49.2b
10/17/2025Total Net TIC Flows     —     —$2.1b
10/20/2025Leading Index-0.30%     —-0.50%
10/21/2025Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity     —     —-12.3
10/22/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-1.80%
10/23/2025Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index     —     —-0.12
10/23/2025Initial Jobless Claims     —     —218k
10/23/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —237.50k
10/23/2025Continuing Claims     —     —     —
10/23/2025Existing Home Sales4.08m     —4.00m
10/23/2025Existing Home Sales MoM2.00%     —-0.20%
10/23/2025Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity     —     —4

Conrad Lofton

Director, Investment Management Group

LinkedIn

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