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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields are 6 basis points higher across the curve after a couple of strong data releases this morning. 

Retail sales greatly exceeded expectations in September. Sales excluding gas and auto sales were up 0.7% m/m (0.3% expected), and the control group, which is used in the GDP calculation also rose 0.7% last month. Within the various categories, sales from miscellaneous retailers surged 4% m/m after rising just 0.3% the previous month (likely a story behind the move). Separately, initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell 19,000 to 241,000 last week. That said, there’s likely quite a bit of noise in the weekly claims data due to the recent hurricanes. Claims had surged 35,000 the prior week to 260,000 before retracing some of that move last week. In other words, it’s premature to determine whether weekly claims have broken out of the trend of the last several months in the 230,000 area.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
10/17/2024Retail Sales Advance MoM0.30%0.40%0.10%—
10/17/2024Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.10%0.50%0.10%0.20%
10/17/2024Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%0.70%0.20%0.30%
10/17/2024Retail Sales Control Group0.30%0.70%0.30%—
10/17/2024Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook310.31.7—
10/17/2024Initial Jobless Claims259k241k258k260k
10/17/2024Continuing Claims1865k1867k1861k1858k
10/17/2024Industrial Production MoM-0.20%—0.80%—
10/17/2024Capacity Utilization77.80%—78.00%—
10/17/2024Manufacturing (SIC) Production-0.10%—0.90%—
10/17/2024Business Inventories0.30%—0.40%—
10/17/2024NAHB Housing Market Index42—41—
10/17/2024Total Net TIC Flows——$156.5b—
10/17/2024Net Long-term TIC Flows——$135.4b—
10/17/2024Monthly Budget Statement$50.0b—-$380.1b—
10/18/2024Housing Starts1350k—1356k—
10/18/2024Building Permits1460k—1475k1470k
10/18/2024Housing Starts MoM-0.40%—9.60%—
10/18/2024Building Permits MoM-0.70%—4.90%4.60%
10/21/2024Leading Index-0.30%—-0.20%—
10/22/2024Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity——-6.1—
10/22/2024Richmond Fed Manufact. Index——-21—
10/22/2024Richmond Fed Business Conditions——-3—
10/23/2024MBA Mortgage Applications——-17.00%—
10/23/2024Existing Home Sales3.88m—3.86m—
10/23/2024Existing Home Sales MoM0.50%—-2.50%—
10/23/2024Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book    
10/24/2024Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index——0.12—
10/24/2024Initial Jobless Claims——241k—
10/24/2024Continuing Claims——1867k—
10/24/2024S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI——47.3—
10/24/2024S&P Global US Services PMI——55.2—
10/24/2024S&P Global US Composite PMI——54—
10/24/2024New Home Sales713k—716k—
10/24/2024New Home Sales MoM-0.40%—-4.70%—
10/24/2024Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity——-8—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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