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Author Jason Haley

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A risk-off trade had Treasury yields lower across the curve overnight, but the move was reversed earlier this morning when President Trump said high tariffs on China are “not sustainable” in an interview with Fox Business.

US equity futures have also bounced higher but still modestly in negative territory an hour before the open. One driver of yesterday’s market anxiety was a selloff in regional bank stocks, sending the S&P Regional Banks Select Index down 6.3% on the day. The catalyst for the weakness was separate reports of fraudulent loans reported by Zions and Western Alliance tied to funds that invest in distressed commercial mortgages. The news weighed on the entire sector and was characterized by some industry analysts as a ‘sell first and ask questions later’ response.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
10/17/2025List of US Economic Indicators Delayed by Government Shutdown   
10/17/2025Housing Starts Report Delayed by Government Shutdown   
10/17/2025Price Indexes Report Delayed by Government Shutdown   
10/17/2025Industrial Production Report Delayed by Government Shutdown   
10/17/2025Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —$49.2b
10/17/2025Total Net TIC Flows     —     —$2.1b
10/20/2025Leading Index Report Delayed by Government Shutdown   
10/21/2025Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity     —     —-12.3
10/22/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-1.80%
10/23/2025Chicago Fed National Activity Delayed by Government Shutdown   
10/23/2025Existing Home Sales4.06m     —4.00m
10/23/2025Existing Home Sales MoM1.50%     —-0.20%
10/23/2025Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity     —     —4
10/24/2025CPI MoM0.40%     —0.40%
10/24/2025Core CPI MoM0.30%     —0.30%
10/24/2025CPI YoY3.10%     —2.90%
10/24/2025Core CPI YoY3.10%     —3.10%
10/24/2025CPI Index NSA325.007     —323.976
10/24/2025Core CPI Index SA330.712     —329.793
10/24/2025S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI51.8     —52
10/24/2025S&P Global US Services PMI53.5     —54.2
10/24/2025S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —53.9
10/24/2025New Home Sales710k     —800k
10/24/2025New Home Sales MoM-11.30%     —20.50%
10/24/2025U. of Mich. Sentiment55     —55
10/24/2025U. of Mich. Current Conditions     —     —61
10/24/2025U. of Mich. Expectations     —     —51.2
10/24/2025U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation     —     —4.60%
10/24/2025U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation     —     —3.70%
10/24/2025Kansas City Fed Services Activity     —     —-9
10/24/2025Bloomberg Oct. United States Economic Survey   
10/24/2025Building Permits     —     —     —
10/24/2025Building Permits MoM     —     —     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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