Treasury yields are higher this morning following fiscal concerns in the UK trading session. The ADP payrolls data came in higher than expected at +143,000 last month after five consecutive months of weak reports. Despite the September increase, the three-month average sits at one of the lowest levels since 2020. Wage growth was on the slower side with earnings up 6.6% y/y, its slowest pace since April of 2021. The hiring in September was broad-based and was led by the leisure and hospitality industry, followed by construction. The information sector was the only one to have cut jobs last month.
Hafizan Hamzah Senior Director, Investment Management Group
Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior 10/02/24 MBA Mortgage Applications — -1.30% 11.00% 10/02/24 ADP Employment Change 125k 143k 99k 10/03/24 Challenger Job Cuts YoY — — 1.00% 10/03/24 Initial Jobless Claims 221k — 218k 10/03/24 Continuing Claims 1830k — 1834k 10/03/24 S&P Global US Services PMI 55.4 — 55.4 10/03/24 S&P Global US Composite PMI 54.3 — 54.4 10/03/24 Factory Orders 0.10% — 5.00% 10/03/24 Factory Orders Ex Trans — — 0.40% 10/03/24 Durable Goods Orders 0.00% — 0.00% 10/03/24 Durables Ex Transportation 0.50% — 0.50% 10/03/24 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air — — 0.20% 10/03/24 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air — — 0.10% 10/03/24 ISM Services Index 51.7 — 51.5 10/03/24 ISM Services Prices Paid 56.3 — 57.3 10/03/24 ISM Services Employment — — 50.2 10/03/24 ISM Services New Orders — — 53 10/04/24 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 150k — 142k 10/04/24 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision — — -86k 10/04/24 Change in Private Payrolls 125k — 118k 10/04/24 Change in Manufact. Payrolls -8k — -24k 10/04/24 Unemployment Rate 4.20% — 4.20% 10/04/24 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.30% — 0.40% 10/04/24 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 3.80% — 3.80% 10/04/24 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 34.3 — 34.3 10/04/24 Labor Force Participation Rate 62.70% — 62.70% 10/04/24 Underemployment Rate — — 7.90%
Hafizan Hamzah Senior Director, Investment Management Group
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