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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

The September jobs report disappointed versus expectations, providing some relief to the bond market selloff.

 Nonfarm payrolls added 29,000 jobs versus 90,000 expected, and the prior two months were revised lower by 60,000 jobs. Average hourly earnings rose just 0.1% m/m (0.3% expected) and 3.0% y/y (3.1% expected). In the household survey, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%, but on an unrounded basis, the move was just 3.4 bps (4.175% from 4.141%). Household employment rose 406,000 while the official labor force rose by 485,000. While weaker than expected, this is not a bad result for Fed leaders and the bond market. The job growth number isn’t terrible given current labor market dynamics, and the unemployment rate increase was more about rounding. This eases pressure on the Fed to hike the funds rate in October and gives it time to monitor more economic data. Treasury yields are down 7 basis points on the front end of the curve in the initial reaction, and S&P 500 futures are up 0.83%.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
10/2/2026Change in Nonfarm Payrolls90k29k162k133k
10/2/2026Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —-60k55k     —
10/2/2026Change in Private Payrolls81k46k127k89k
10/2/2026Change in Manufact. Payrolls10k9k16k15k
10/2/2026Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —51k71k51k
10/2/2026Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.10%0.30%     —
10/2/2026Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.10%3.00%3.10%     —
10/2/2026Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.334.434.4     —
10/2/2026Unemployment Rate4.10%4.20%4.10%     —
10/2/2026Labor Force Participation Rate61.60%61.80%61.60%     —
10/2/2026Underemployment Rate7.70%7.60%7.70%     —
10/2/2026Factory Orders0.20%     —0.90%     —
10/2/2026Factory Orders Ex Trans0.60%     —0.60%     —
10/2/2026Durable Goods Orders0.00%     —0.00%     —
10/2/2026Durables Ex Transportation0.30%     —0.30%     —
10/2/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air1.60%     —1.60%     —
10/2/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.60%     —
10/5/2026S&P Global US Services PMI58.7     —58.7     —
10/5/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —58.4     —
10/5/2026ISM Services Index55.2     —55.4     —
10/5/2026ISM Services Prices Paid73     —72.6     —
10/5/2026ISM Services New Orders60.5     —60.9     —
10/5/2026ISM Services Employment49     —47.8     —
10/6/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —20.000k     —
10/6/2026Trade Balance-$89.8b     —-$88.6b     —
10/6/2026Imports MoM     —     —2.80%     —
10/6/2026Exports MoM     —     —-2.10%     —
10/7/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-6.00%     —
10/7/2026NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations3.64%     —3.58%     —
10/7/2026FOMC Meeting Minutes     —     —     —     —
10/7/2026Consumer Credit$15.000b     —$18.062b     —
10/8/2026Initial Jobless Claims     —     —197k     —
10/8/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —200.00k     —
10/8/2026Continuing Claims     —     —1701k     —
10/8/2026Wholesale Trade Sales MoM     —     —0.80%     —
10/8/2026Wholesale Inventories MoM     —     —0.70%     —
10/9/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment48     —48.1     —
10/9/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions     —     —50.9     —
10/9/2026U. of Mich. Expectations     —     —46.3     —
10/9/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation     —     —4.60%     —
10/9/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation     —     —3.40%     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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