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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Long-end Treasury yields are 1-2 basis points lower to start the week after President Trump provided a list of top demands before resuming trade talks with China.

The demands are generally focused on three categories – rare earth minerals, fentanyl, and soybeans. Markets and Fed leaders alike remain in the dark as it relates to public economic data as we near the three-week mark of the federal government shutdown. We will receive the September CPI report on Friday, a singular data release the BLS will provide given its role in calculating cost-of-living adjustments for Social Security distributions. The Fed’s communications blackout period has commenced ahead of the October 29 FOMC meeting, and the bond market remains firmly priced for a 25-basis point cut at that meeting and 125 bps of cuts in total through the end of next year.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
10/20/2025List of US Economic Indicators Delayed by Government Shutdown   
10/20/2025Leading Index Report Delayed by Government Shutdown   
10/21/2025Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity     —     —-12.3
10/22/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-1.80%
10/23/2025Chicago Fed National Activity Delayed by Government Shutdown   
10/23/2025Initial Jobless Claims226k     —     —
10/23/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —     —
10/23/2025Continuing Claims     —     —     —
10/23/2025Existing Home Sales4.06m     —4.00m
10/23/2025Existing Home Sales MoM1.50%     —-0.20%
10/23/2025Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity     —     —4
10/24/2025CPI MoM0.40%     —0.40%
10/24/2025Core CPI MoM0.30%     —0.30%
10/24/2025CPI YoY3.10%     —2.90%
10/24/2025Core CPI YoY3.10%     —3.10%
10/24/2025CPI Index NSA325.01     —323.976
10/24/2025Core CPI Index SA330.712     —329.793
10/24/2025S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI51.8     —52
10/24/2025S&P Global US Services PMI53.5     —54.2
10/24/2025S&P Global US Composite PMI53.5     —53.9
10/24/2025New Home Sales707k     —800k
10/24/2025New Home Sales MoM-11.60%     —20.50%
10/24/2025U. of Mich. Sentiment55     —55
10/24/2025U. of Mich. Current Conditions     —     —61
10/24/2025U. of Mich. Expectations     —     —51.2
10/24/2025U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation     —     —4.60%
10/24/2025U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation     —     —3.70%
10/24/2025Kansas City Fed Services Activity     —     —-9
10/24/2025Bloomberg Oct. United States Economic Survey   
10/24/2025Building Permits     —     —     —
10/24/2025Building Permits MoM     —     —     —
10/27/2025Durable Goods Orders-0.60%     —     —
10/27/2025Durables Ex Transportation     —     —     —
10/27/2025Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —     —
10/27/2025Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —     —
10/27/2025Dallas Fed Manf. Activity     —     —-8.7

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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