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Author Jason Haley

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A modest risk-off trade emerged overnight in Treasuries amid weakness in Asian tech stocks.

Yields are currently 4 basis points lower on the long end of the curve, and Nasdaq 100 futures are down 0.75% (8:20 a.m. ET). S&P 500 futures are experiencing a more modest 0.25% decline. This continues the trend from last week, when Treasuries tracked tech stocks more closely amid broader AI worries. Oil futures are up more than 1% today, with the price of Brent crude the highest since mid-May. Housing starts unexpectedly fell 5.2% in September to a 1,22-million-unit pace. Single-family starts were down 4.6% m/m to the lowest level in a year, while multifamily starts dropped 6.7% m/m. Forward-looking building permits were also lower in September, falling 0.2%. Single-family building permits fell 4% m/m.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
10/20/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —18.500k24.750k26.000k
10/20/2026Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity     —-23.6-22     —
10/20/2026Housing Starts1305k1221k1275k1288k
10/20/2026Housing Starts MoM1.90%-5.20%-2.60%-5.90%
10/20/2026Building Permits1385k1400k1403k     —
10/20/2026Building Permits MoM-1.30%-0.20%-2.10%     —
10/20/2026Pending Home Sales MoM-0.50%     —0.30%     —
10/20/2026Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-3.90%     —-4.90%     —
10/21/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-2.70%     —
10/22/2026Initial Jobless Claims200k     —199k     —
10/22/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —198.50k     —
10/22/2026Continuing Claims1710k     —1710k     —
10/22/2026Leading Index-0.10%     —-0.10%     —
10/22/2026Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity12     —14     —
10/23/2026Bloomberg Oct. United States Economic Survey    
10/23/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI55.5     —55.9     —
10/23/2026S&P Global US Services PMI58     —58.8     —
10/23/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI57.1     —58.4     —
10/23/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment46.3     —46.3     —
10/23/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions     —     —44.7     —
10/23/2026U. of Mich. Expectations     —     —47.3     —
10/23/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation     —     —4.70%     —
10/23/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation     —     —3.50%     —
10/23/2026Kansas City Fed Services Activity     —     —0     —
10/26/2026Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index     —     —-0.04     —
10/26/2026Dallas Fed Manf. Activity     —     —9.8     —
10/27/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —18.500k     —
10/27/2026Durable Goods Orders1.40%     —-0.10%     —
10/27/2026Durables Ex Transportation0.50%     —0.20%     —
10/27/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.70%     —1.60%     —
10/27/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.50%     —
10/27/2026FHFA House Price Index MoM     —     —0.30%     —
10/27/2026S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA     —     —0.32%     —
10/27/2026S&P Cotality CS 20-City YoY NSA     —     —2.47%     —
10/27/2026S&P Cotality CS US HPI YoY NSA     —     —1.93%     —
10/27/2026Conf. Board Consumer Confidence80.3     —81.9     —
10/27/2026Richmond Fed Manufact. Index     —     —-2     —
10/27/2026Richmond Fed Business Conditions     —     —-8     —
10/27/2026Conf. Board Present Situation     —     —109.3     —
10/27/2026Conf. Board Expectations     —     —63.6     —
10/27/2026New Home Sales652k     —684k     —
10/27/2026New Home Sales MoM-5.50%     —6.40%     —
10/27/2026Dallas Fed Services Activity     —     —-1.8     —
10/27/2026Building Permits     —     —1400k     —
10/27/2026Building Permits MoM     —     —-0.20%     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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