The curve is higher and steeper this morning, with the 2-year up 3.6 bps and the 10-year up 5 bps. Treasury yields continue to climb as strong economic data has caused traders to reconsider the path of Fed rate cuts. The market is now pricing 150 bps of cuts over the next year and a half vs. 200 bps at the end of September. Later today, the market will be focused on speeches from a full slate of Fed officials as Logan, Kashkari, Schmid, and Daly are scheduled to speak.
Hafizan Hamzah Senior Director, Investment Management Group
Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior 10/21/24 Leading Index -0.30% — -0.20% 10/22/24 Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity 4.1 — -6.1 10/22/24 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index -17 — -21 10/22/24 Richmond Fed Business Conditions — — -3 10/23/24 MBA Mortgage Applications — — -17.00% 10/23/24 Existing Home Sales 3.89m — 3.86m 10/23/24 Existing Home Sales MoM 0.70% — -2.50% 10/23/24 Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book 10/24/24 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 0.5 — 0.12 10/24/24 Initial Jobless Claims 242k — 241k 10/24/24 Continuing Claims 1875k — 1867k 10/24/24 S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI 47.5 — 47.3 10/24/24 S&P Global US Services PMI 55 — 55.2 10/24/24 S&P Global US Composite PMI 53.6 — 54 10/24/24 New Home Sales 720k — 716k 10/24/24 New Home Sales MoM 0.60% — -4.70% 10/24/24 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity -8 — -8 10/25/24 Durable Goods Orders -1.00% — 0.00% 10/25/24 Durables Ex Transportation -0.10% — 0.50% 10/25/24 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.10% — 0.30% 10/25/24 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 0.00% — -0.10% 10/25/24 Bloomberg Oct. United States Economic Survey 10/25/24 U. of Mich. Sentiment 69.2 — 68.9 10/25/24 U. of Mich. Current Conditions — — 62.7 10/25/24 U. of Mich. Expectations — — 72.9 10/25/24 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation — — 2.90% 10/25/24 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 3.00% — 3.00% 10/25/24 Kansas City Fed Services Activity — — -2
Hafizan Hamzah Senior Director, Investment Management Group
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