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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields are unchanged to slightly lower to begin the day.

Fixed income credit has been on a strong run since mid-April when the White House quelled concerns of the worst-case scenarios related to trade policy. Spreads had moved notably tighter across much of the credit ratings scale over the following 5-6 months, but there has been some giveback over the last few weeks following the failures of First Brands (auto parts supplier) and Tricolor (subprime lender). More recently, two regional banks (Western Alliance & Zions) reported large charge-offs for loans with allegations of fraud associated with the borrowers. Recent spread widening has been relatively mild across fixed income in general, and what widening we have seen has been more concentrated in subordinate debt of auto securitizations (mostly subprime) and high yield corporate debt/loans. Bloomberg is also reporting that collateralized loan obligation (CLO) ETFs experienced outflows of $516 million last week, the most since April. Much of that ($476 million) came out of Janus Henderson’s AAA-rated CLO ETF, which suggests the outflows might be more related to retail investor jitters at this point (i.e., no AAA-rated CLO has ever experienced a loss of principal).

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
10/21/2025List of US Economic Indicators Delayed by Government Shutdown   
10/21/2025Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity     —-22.2-12.3
10/22/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-1.80%
10/23/2025Chicago Fed National Activity Delayed by Government Shutdown   
10/23/2025Initial Jobless Claims225k     —     —
10/23/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —     —
10/23/2025Continuing Claims1925k     —     —
10/23/2025Existing Home Sales4.06m     —4.00m
10/23/2025Existing Home Sales MoM1.50%     —-0.20%
10/23/2025Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity     —     —4
10/24/2025CPI MoM0.40%     —0.40%
10/24/2025Core CPI MoM0.30%     —0.30%
10/24/2025CPI YoY3.10%     —2.90%
10/24/2025Core CPI YoY3.10%     —3.10%
10/24/2025CPI Index NSA325.023     —323.976
10/24/2025Core CPI Index SA330.712     —329.793
10/24/2025S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI51.9     —52
10/24/2025S&P Global US Services PMI53.5     —54.2
10/24/2025S&P Global US Composite PMI53.5     —53.9
10/24/2025New Home Sales709k     —800k
10/24/2025New Home Sales MoM-11.40%     —20.50%
10/24/2025U. of Mich. Sentiment54.7     —55
10/24/2025U. of Mich. Current Conditions     —     —61
10/24/2025U. of Mich. Expectations     —     —51.2
10/24/2025U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation     —     —4.60%
10/24/2025U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.70%     —3.70%
10/24/2025Kansas City Fed Services Activity     —     —-9
10/24/2025Bloomberg Oct. United States Economic Survey   
10/24/2025Building Permits     —     —     —
10/24/2025Building Permits MoM     —     —     —
10/27/2025Durable Goods Orders-0.60%     —     —
10/27/2025Durables Ex Transportation     —     —     —
10/27/2025Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —     —
10/27/2025Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —     —
10/27/2025Dallas Fed Manf. Activity     —     —-8.7
10/28/2025FHFA House Price Index MoM     —     —-0.10%
10/28/2025S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA     —     —-0.07%
10/28/2025S&P Cotality CS 20-City YoY NSA     —     —1.82%
10/28/2025S&P Cotality CS US HPI YoY NSA     —     —1.68%
10/28/2025Richmond Fed Manufact. Index     —     —-17
10/28/2025Richmond Fed Business Conditions     —     —-7
10/28/2025Conf. Board Consumer Confidence93.8     —94.2
10/28/2025Conf. Board Present Situation     —     —125.4
10/28/2025Conf. Board Expectations     —     —73.4
10/28/2025Dallas Fed Services Activity     —     —-5.6

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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